Argentine cacerolazos* join Quebec cacerolazos**

since i gave up my place in buenos aires, i've been grossly negligent in posting on argentina... that doesn't mean, however, that i haven't been keeping up on argentina news... 

the on-going telenovela that is argentina is endlessly fascinating, particularly the exploits of its fashionista president, cristina fernandez de kirchner... cristina is a hoot and would be vastly amusing if she weren't leading a country of nearly 40 million people... she is in her second term following the two terms of her husband, nestor kirchner, who died unexpectedly midway through her first term... she won the last election with 54% of the vote and recently moved to shore up her populist credentials by nationalizing the ypf oil company and kicking out the principal shareholder, spain's repsol... but i've been wondering how long it would take argentines to grow tired of the inflation, corruption and general economic mismanagement that continues to be a hallmark not only of her presidency but of argentina governance in general, stretching back for generations... the straw that broke the camel's back was no doubt cristina's decree limiting u.s. dollar transactions, a decision that led to an enormous increase in capital flight... now, it looks like the good citizens of argentina have had it and have joined their quebecois brethren in making a joyful noise and returned to the street protests that characterized their response to the 2001 economic collapse ...


Pots and pans to protest corruption in Buenos Aires

Middle class Argentines protest with pots and pans against corruption, crime, inflation and the dollar clamp

For the third night in ten days angry Argentines took to the streets of Buenos Aires and other major cities banging pots and pans to protest corruption, rampant crime and insecurity, inflation and the dollar clamp in the midst of an economy that is showing clear signals of exhaustion and growing questions on the current course of affairs.

when i left buenos aires a year ago december, annual inflation was running over 28% and, from everything i've been reading, it hasn't slowed down a bit... i honestly don't know how ordinary argentines make it day-to-day in that economy... i first went there in 2004 and paid 5 pesos for a haircut and the peso-dollar exchange rate was 3-to-1... when i left in 2010, i was paying 25 pesos for a haircut and the exchange rate was 3.8-to-1... i have no idea what i would pay for a haircut today but i do know the exchange rate is now 4.4-to-1... one other thing i do know is that, in an attempt to "make it" financially, argentines cheat, lie, steal and stick it to each other as much as possible and when they're not sticking it to each other, they're REALLY sticking it to the tourists, which usually results in this...

Argentina rapidly becoming too expensive for foreign tourists

Argentina is rapidly becoming an expensive country for tourists and evidence of this is the declining number of tourists arriving in the country in the first months of the year while the number of Argentine travelling overseas is soaring, according to Mario Lielman, chair of the Buenos Aires Tourism and Travel Agencies Association.

i have a very warm spot in my heart for argentina and argentines but, as i've come to learn, argentina is, in many ways, its own worst enemy...

* A cacerolazo or cacerolada is a form of popular protest practised in certain Spanish-speaking countries – in particular Argentina, Chile and Uruguay – which consists in a group of people creating noise by banging pots, pans, and other utensils in order to call for attention. What is peculiar about this type of demonstration is that the people protest from their own homes, thus achieving a high level of support and participation.

** In 2012 in Québec, a province of Canada, citizens are currently using cacerolazo after the adoption on 18 May of Bill 78, an act which severely restricts rights to peacefully assemble. Bill 78 has raised the ire of the Quebec Bar Association, the Quebec Human Rights Commission, Amnesty International, and others. While court challenges are underway, the "Casseroles" or "Pots and Pans Demonstrations" continue nightly in towns and cities across the province, concentrated in Montreal's various neighbourhoods. This joyful Montreal video of Cacerolazo in action has gone viral: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/05/25/montreal-pots-and-pans-video-bill-78_n_1546694.html

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Wow...! Argentina's Nestor Kirchner dies...!

and here i sit in buenos aires wondering why the day is so strangely quiet...


Nestor Kirchner

Former Argentine President Nestor Kirchner dies

Argentina's former President Nestor Kirchner has died, after reportedly suffering a heart attack.

Mr Kirchner, 60, who had been operated on in September for heart problems, died in the southern Argentine city of El Calafate, local media reported.

His wife, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, is the current president of the country.

Mr Kirchner served as resident from 2003 to 2007, and was being tipped to stand for election again in 2011.

He entered office after Argentina had seen a series of presidents come and go during a financial crisis 2001.

like so many who rise to the heights of political power, kirchner was obsessed with power and money... i was no fan but i concede that he did manage to pull the country out of its death spiral and did it with a flourish of populism all too rare in today's world... by the end of his second term, however, his true colors were abundantly clear and when he positioned his wife to succeed him - which she did in the 2007 election - i washed my hands of him... the fact that he was angling to get back into office in next year's election simply deepened my disgust...

all that said, however, even though i have decided to give up my place here, a place i have had for five years, argentina will always occupy a very soft place in my heart... as for nestor, may he rest in peace...

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Only from the mouth of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner

the telenovela that is argentina rolls merrily along as always... there have been a number of developments on the scene here that have been post-worthy, but, given my recent high pout about the state of world affairs in general, i've passed on the opportunity to reinforce their absurdity by paying them attention they don't deserve - until this stunning piece of idiocy passed in front of my eyes this morning...

Pork better for sex than Viagra?

Argentina's president recommended pork as an alternative to Viagra Wednesday, saying she spent a satisfying weekend with her husband after eating barbecued pork.

"I've just been told something I didn't know; that eating pork improves your sex life ... I'd say it's a lot nicer to eat a bit of grilled pork than take Viagra," President Cristina Fernandez said to leaders of the pig farming industry.

She said she recently ate pork and "things went very well that weekend, so it could well be true."

Argentines are the world's biggest per capita consumers of beef, but the government has sought to promote pork as an alternative in recent years due to rising steak prices and as a way to diversify the meat industry.

"Trying it doesn't cost anything, so let's give it a go," Fernandez said in the televised speech.

cristina is a piece of work, known in some circles here as a total air-head "fashionista," who earned that sobriquet after traveling to italy to attend an international conference and spending most of her time shopping in high-end clothing and shoe stores... besides being an air-head, she's also the wife of the FORMER president, nestor kirchner, a situation we in the u.s. would have been facing had we elected hillary...

cristina, imho, offers the perfect application of the following...



and, no, cristina, i don't give a fig for the details of your sex life...

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Stubborn Argentina continues to shoot itself in the foot

honest to god... i LOVE that country but, fercryinoutloud, they desperately need to figure out how to get their ducks in a row... argentina has about as much potential both people and natural resource-wise as any country in the world but they also have this unparalleled ability to screw things up for themselves... here's a few samples of recent mostly unpleasant news... (yes, the post is a bit long but i'm making up for lost time... HA...!)

one year ago, the argentine government decided to re-nationalize the national airline, aerolíneas argentinas... it had been sold a number of years ago to the spanish firm, marsans, which, in typical privatization fashion, had operated it as a cash cow while letting everything deteriorate to unacceptable standards without investing a single peso in modernization, leaving a once proud carrier to become the butt of airline industry jokes...

and now...?

Argentina’s re-nationalized flag air carrier Aerolíneas Argentinas lost in July 48 million US dollars which is “a little bit more” than the same month a year ago when the company belonged to the Spanish tourism group Marsans, according to the company’s current CEO Mariano Recalde.

[...]

“In June 2008 revenue was 90 million US dollars and this year 50 million USD”, said Recalde adding that “June and July are the worst months for airlines in the southern hemisphere”, plus the fact that this year “we had a dramatic drop in winter tourism because of the A/H1N1 virus flu”.

Copyright © Colin Hunter

The July loss “just above 48 million USD” and an average red of “33 million USD” admitted by CEO Recalde, with average revenue of 50 million USD in June, are indicating that income is only covering between 50 and 60% of costs.

Nevertheless Recalde insisted in his optimism in the future of the company since “under government management all indicators of Aerolíneas have improved significantly”. He added that when the crisis “which is hitting all airlines of the world is over, revenue is going to increase considerably”

.
yeah, well, of course the airline was hit by the global economic downturn and the swine flu panic, but let's hope one of these days soon it can at least recover some of its dignity...

another big dynamic in argentina is that people simply do not trust their government... in fact, they don't even trust each other which, in my view, is simply an extension of the former... and is it any wonder...?

Workers at the government's National Institute of Statistics call it crass manipulation: Their agency, under pressure from above, altered socioeconomic data to reflect numbers palatable to the presidency. Inflation and poverty miraculously dropped, they said in interviews, and the economy boomed.

At least officially.

"They just erased the real numbers," said Luciano Belforte, an 18-year veteran at the institute. "Reality did not matter."

The alleged manipulation, which is under investigation by anti-corruption prosecutors, has angered Argentines. But in a globalized world, where a pensioner in Italy might be as likely to invest in Argentina as in Fiat, the suspected modifications are being felt far beyond this city.

[...]

Economists say the official inflation rate of 8.5 percent in 2007 was really about 25 percent. In the 12 months ended this June, the INDEC put the rate at 5.3 percent, but economists say it might be three times higher. Argentina's vaunted economic growth this decade might have been exaggerated, too. Credit Suisse said the 7 percent expansion the government reported last year is likely 2 to 3 percent lower.

[...]

The controversy has raised questions about the government's official poverty figure. The INDEC's calculation is 15.3 percent; the Catholic Church says it is closer to 40 percent. After Pope Benedict XVI called poverty in Argentina a "scandal" this month, the government acknowledged that as many as 23 percent of Argentines might be poor.

so, guess what that massive lack of people's trust in their government has led to... check this out...

Argentina’s flight of capital remains steady having reached 5.5 billion US dollars in the second quarter of the year, 11.2 billion in the first half and 43.1 billion US dollars since the second quarter of 2007, when the first signs of the global crisis, according to the latest data from the Argentine Central Bank.

However it has been below the peaks of the second quarter of 2008, when the farmers’ conflict with the Argentine government was at its highest point and at the end of last year when the Kirchner administration took over the private pensions’ savings funds.

The Central Bank also points out that some of the flight has been into hard currency deposits and “local corporations are using those funds to pay for the running of their businesses but from foreign accounts”.

Local economists point out that the deterioration of fiscal accounts, particularly the budget, and the possibility of a faster devaluation to help compensate the lack of revenue is making savers and companies put their monies in hard currency.

[...]

[E]conomics analyst centre Prefinex also believes that people fear the government will begin printing money to cover the fiscal deficit, which leads to a devaluation of the Peso and capital flight.

Econviews points out that the link between capital flight and a poor fiscal situation also worked inversely: lack of confidence encouraged capital flight which then generated less activity, less revenue and less fiscal abundance.

and it ain't only money that's leaving the country... here's some amazing statistics...

Over 800.000 Argentines left the country following the 2001 economic debacle, according to the latest report from the International Organization for Migration, which in the last decade represents 2.1% of total population.

[...]

Reference data shows that at the beginning of the XXth century an estimated 4.2 million immigrants from Italy, Spain, France and other European countries reached Argentina, but following a few years half of them returned. This means 2.2 million effectively remained in Argentina, which means that the exodus of the beginning of this century is equivalent to almost a third of that early last century massive influx.

However the latest data does not include the Argentines that have been forced to return because of the latest global economic crisis which has hit particularly hard Italy, Spain and the United States.

[...]

The local impact of this qualified emigration has been suffered by the Argentine private sector which has been forced to capacitate personnel and contract staff that can be reconverted.

how sad...

at least there's one bright spot...

Argentina paid creditors a total of 2.25 billion dollars on government-issued debt Monday, as it sought to shed the last vestiges of its 2001 default and return to the financial mainstream. Economy Minister Amado Boudou said the payment, or coupon, had been made to holders of dollar-denominated Boden 2012 bonds—meeting a debt obligation that aims to boost confidence.

"The coupon corresponding to Boden 2012 has been paid," said Boudou, adding that the country would now seek a return to global capital markets before the end of the year.

Argentina has been excluded from these markets since December 2001, when the country suffered an economic collapse wiping out personal savings, shredding government finances and prompting Buenos Aires to default on its debt.

In 2005 Argentina restructured its defaulted debt but there are still an estimated 20 billion dollars in holdouts plus a pending debt to the Paris Club of lenders of 6.5 billion. The country’s debt currently stands at 145 billion US dollars, plus the standing demands.

The Boden 2012 bond was issued in 2002 to compensate creditors who found access to their capital blocked during the 2001 freeze on bank withdrawals. It is estimated 65% of the bond issue is held outside Argentina and 35% locally.

i've been back in the u.s. since the end of may - too long... i'm getting itchy feet and my compass needle is pointing right at buenos aires where there will be signs of spring a'springin' within the next few weeks... unfortunately, it's likely i will be heading east to the balkans and back to afghanistan before i can once again enjoy the company of porteños...

like i say, i love argentina and the argentines but i sure wish they could figure out how to get their act together...

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Follow-up: Argentine election results

i read a few articles on the election results which claimed that argentine voters were repudiating a center-left government... b.s... they were repudiating an incompetent, airhead, fashionista presidente who, with her ex-presidente husband, have systematically, in true argentine fashion, lined their own pockets while claiming to be on the side of the poor, a population that is steadily increasing while the rich - as usual - get richer...

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner lost power in Congress after voters angry at her handling of a farm strike, crime and a slowing economy favored opposition candidates in mid-term elections yesterday.

Fernandez acknowledged that a slate of candidates for the lower house led by her husband, former President Nestor Kirchner, was defeated in the bellwether province of Buenos Aires. She told reporters today that the government will have 35 seats in the 72-member senate and 107 lawmakers in the 257- member lower house, not counting allies from other blocs.

Fernandez, 56, relied on her coalition’s control of Congress to back an agenda that included nationalizing $24 billion in private pension funds and the country’s flagship airline, Aerolineas Argentinas SA. She angered many supporters when she tried to raise farm export taxes last year, provoking four months of road blockades and protests.

too bad, so sad, cristina... meanwhile, check out what you've done to your wonderful country...

Argentina faces having to import wheat

Argentina, which considers itself the world’s bread basket, faces having to import wheat next year after the worst planting season on record because of drought, lack of credit and government policies.

Argentine farmers are set to sow about 2.9m hectares with wheat, the smallest area since records started more than a century ago and down 30 per cent from last season’s 4.2m, according to estimates from the Buenos Aires grain exchange.

“Since records started in Argentina more than 100 years ago there is not a single season with a lower planted area,” said Esteban Copati, an agricultural analyst at the exchange. “The wheat-sowing season has started badly, on the wrong footing.”

what a crying shame...

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Tomorrow's election in Argentina

a triumph of vacuousness... sigh...

In the waning minutes of “Showmatch,” the most popular entertainment show on Argentine television, the host managed on Thursday night to finally connect with Néstor Kirchner, the former president and now a candidate for Congress.

The suspense had been building for more than 90 minutes — “Will Néstor come?” was the title of the show — and the host, Marcelo Tinelli, periodically went to the street to check for signs of Mr. Kirchner’s motorcade. With the show nearing its end, Mr. Tinelli telephoned Mr. Kirchner at the presidential residence that he shares with his wife, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

“What’s up with you calling at this hour, Marcelo?” Mr. Kirchner asked jokingly.

Mr. Kirchner’s appearance had been rumored for days as a potential last-ditch effort to charm voters and perhaps save the Kirchners’ political future in congressional elections scheduled for Sunday. With a dearth of political television in Argentina and Mr. Kirchner’s refusal to debate his rivals, the political sketches of “Showmatch” have filled a void.

In what analysts say are further signs of desperation, the Kirchners have encouraged dozens of city council members and even Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires Province, to run on their ticket as “testimonial candidates,” who do not expect to actually assume their positions if they win, a practice that has not been challenged in Argentina.

“This is one of the most vacuous legislative campaigns I have ever seen in this country,” said Graciela Romer, a veteran political analyst in Buenos Aires. “This is a campaign that has been almost entirely waged through Tinelli’s show.”

what a shame... argentina is such a wonderful country in so many ways and yet this is the kind of charade that passes for democracy... where's the real leadership...? that said, i could say virtually the same thing about my own country...

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Argentina nationalizes its pension fund and its biggest airline

not to be outdone by george bush, argentina announced two major nationalizations in the past week, altho' argentina, unlike the u.s., doesn't shy away from calling them "nationalizations" rather than characterizing them as "taking an ownership stake," the propaganda spin served up by the white house...

first the pension story...

Argentina's President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner on Tuesday (Oct 21) announced
The measure would force the country's 10 AFJPs to transfer the 94.4bn pesos (US$29.3bn) in assets they held as of end-September to social security agency ANSES.

Speaking before an audience at the ANSES headquarters on Tuesday afternoon, Fernández said the measure was a "strategic decision" taken to preserve Argentine retirees' savings. The new system will be called SIPA (Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino).

On Monday, local daily Clarín broke the news, citing a document from ANSES that said recent losses in AFJP funds prompted by market volatility are evidence the system is "conceptually inadequate".

then the airline...

Argentina's government has decided to seize the country's biggest airline, Aerolineas Argentinas, because talks with the current owners over a price have broken down, a local newspaper reported.

Private Spanish travel group Marsans agreed in July to sell faltering Aerolineas Argentinas and its Austral unit to the government.

The two companies employ some 9,000 workers and operate about 80 percent of domestic flights. They also have debt worth an estimated USD$890 million.

Newspaper La Nacion said the government would soon announce its decision to expropriate the airlines, citing sources in the government, trade unions and the company.

"The agreement with Marsans got exhausted with time," an unnamed government official was quoted as saying.

just another example of the ripple effect of the collapse of the global financial markets...

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The view of the U.S./first world financial crisis from Latin America

i think one word captures it nicely - schadenfreude...

from mercopress...

brazil's lula da silva...

Brazilian President Lula da Silva said on Thursday he has watched with “sadness” the collapse of Wall Street firms that made economic policy recommendations in emerging markets “as if they were the super intelligent and we were the poor souls”, according to Spanish news agency EFE.
“Important banks, very important banks, that spent their lives giving advice about Brazil and what we should or shouldn't do are now broke”, EFE quoted Lula da Silva as saying in a speech in southern Brazil.

Lula criticized Wall Street firms for treating financial markets like a “casino” and for relying on “speculation” to make money. He said the Brazilian economy is well-equipped to weather the global crisis and would suffer “very little” even if the US sinks into a deep recession, according to EFE.

argentina's cristina fernandez de kirchner...

Earlier in the week Argentina’s Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner adopted a similar stance during a political rally: “while the First World collapses” because of the international crisis, Argentina remains “firm”.

“The First World, to which we had been repeatedly told we must reach, is crumbling like a bubble”, she underlined. “In the midst of the swelling sea” Argentina remains strong. “It’s time many of those institutions instead of telling us what to do, should look around and do something for themselves”.

after years and years and years of having their noses rubbed in it by the u.s., the imf and the world bank, it has to be at least a little bit gratifying to watch the greedy bastards who kept telling you if you would only do things THEIR way all would be just fine, having to lie in the bed they themselves made...

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34.7% inflation rate in Argentina

holy crap...! and i'm heading back there next month to spend some quality r&r time in my little place... guess i better bring extra money...

Argentines’ inflation expectations for next 12 months: 34.7%

Argentines expect consumer prices to increase on average 34.7% in the coming twelve months, which is slightly lower than the previous report, according to the latest release from the Finance Research Center belonging to the Torcuato Di Tella Univeristy.
“Inflation expectations for the coming twelve months remain above 30% according to the average reply, while dropping 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous average”, indicates the release.

However “inflation expectations are virtually double those of June last year”.

These expectations vary according to the region of Argentina: in the capital Buenos Aires the rate remains high at 36.5%; in the Great (metropolitan) Buenos Aires drops to 33.1% and in the rest of the country climbs to 36.7%.

and what's the "official" inflation rate according to the totally out-of-touch and lying through its teeth government of cristina fernandez de kirchner...?

The Argentine Central Bank monthly survey estimates inflation in the next twelve months to be in the range of 9.7%.

that would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic and if the real rate of inflation wasn't taking such a toll on the folks least able to deal with it...

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Sovereign debt default, inflation and denial - a long overdue update on Argentina

i've posted extensively on argentina in general and particularly its $95B 2001 bond default (see here)... over seventy percent of the bondholders opted for a 2004 swap deal that offered them 30 cents on the dollar, leaving about $20B outstanding... the remaining bondholders, mostly in the u.s., refused the swap, and continued to hold out past the 25 february 2005 expiration date... they're still trying to get all of their money...

A United States judge granted on Wednesday a request by bondholders suing Argentina to extend a freeze on as much as 16 billion US dollars in sovereign bonds issued by the country and which now held by the Depository Trust Co. in New York.

Argentina claims it no longer has any interest in the bonds and that they are worth only 2 billion US dollars. The order stems from a class-action, or group lawsuit brought by bond holders who claim Argentina wrongly failed to pay interest or principal on its 11 percent global notes due in October 2006. The plaintiffs, who claim the bonds are worth as much 16 billion, are seeking more than a billion US dollars in damages.

[...]


Argentina defaulted on 95 billion in debt in late 2001. In 2005, then-President Nestor Kirchner offered holders of defaulted debt 30 cents on the dollar. Holders of about 20 billion in bonds rejected that deal. Argentina has since refused to re-open negotiations, preventing the country from being able to directly tap international credit markets. The country has also been the subject of lawsuits by individual bondholders.

imho, these primarily u.s. based bondholders are throwing away their attorney fees... argentina, while it would like to get back in the good graces of the international credit markets doesn't feel any great pressure to do so... for one thing, the country's economy has been pushing forward at an amazing 9% since the default... for another, much of latin america, including argentina, has banded together under the financial assistance umbrella of venezuela and hugo chávez (banco del sur) at considerably more favorable, less restrictive and much less ideological terms than offered by the world bank, the imf or the big transnational banks...

besides, argentina has other things to worry about at the moment...

Inflation has become the main concern of a majority of Argentines, leaving aside other issues such as insecurity and poverty according to the latest public opinion polls from Ibarometro and Hugo Haime & Associates, released this week in Buenos Aires and which refers to the second half of April.

According to Ibarometro, 36.9% of respondents consider their main concern “the hike in prices”, while for Haime 50% of Argentines feel that “inflation is what most impacts daily life”. This suggests a radical change from last January.

At the beginning of 2008, for Ibarometro the main issues were insecurity, education, poverty and fourth rated inflation. But in three months inflation climbed to top of the list. Similarly with Haime, the April 50% was only 31% last January.

To make things even more worrisome, last January 37% believed inflation in 2008 was to be higher than in 2007, but in the latest poll the percentage jumped to 71%. That is 71% believe the current Argentine administration is not considered capable of keeping prices at a reasonable level.

Food, clothing and personal hygiene goods were the most volatile according to the opinion polls.

“Inflation, newspaper headlines almost daily and the discredited image of Indec (the office responsible for calculating consumer price indexes) is fueling the negative perception of the economic situation. We also believe that the camp conflict increases that negative perception”, pointed out Ibarometro.

More specifically compared with January “the inflation issue has jumped 200% from 11% to 36.9%, while insecurity falls ten percentage points. Clearly the increase in prices shadows all other concerns. The education issue also virtually has disappeared from the list of ratings”, added Ibarometro.

As to the overall economic situation, a majority of Argentines have a negative view: 56.8% describe it as “bad” or “very bad”. Only 30% considers it “very good” or “reasonably good”. However in spite of these percentages four out of ten respondents considered positive the sacking of the Economy minister Martin Lousteau.

the argentine government officially claims inflation at just under 10%... my finger in the air calculation is closer to 20%, and, if you're a foreign tourist, it's pushing 30%... it's that inflation, not a suit by disgruntled bondholders, that's going to bite cristina in her expensively-clad tush...

S&P said it had downgraded Argentine bonds’ risk rate precisely because the Kirchner administration refuses point blank to apply any cooling policies and insists that inflation is under control. In spite of the fact that the overall consensus is that inflation contrary to the “official” statistics of just below two digits is in the range of 18 to 24%.

as much as i have a very soft spot in my heart for argentina, it's difficult to let the argentine government off the hook when it's still led by those who think denial is a river in egypt...

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It looks like Argentina is going to re-pay its Paris Club debt, finally closing the door on 2001

i've posted extensively (see here) on the gripping telenovela that world observers were treated to as argentina struggled to deal with the imf and argentine bond-holders following argentina's 2001 economic collapse, where argentina basically told the world financial community to take their loan conditions and stick 'em where the sun don't shine, that argentina's first obligation was to the welfare of its citizens... needless to say, that didn't play well among the super-rich elites who consider their debtors' promises to repay as a sacred obligation... and, sadly, it didn't play well either with elderly pensioners in places like italy and japan who were forced to accept a 75% haircut on their investments...

there's a $6+ billion debt still to be re-paid to the paris club of nations and the imf has been pressuring argentina to cough up for some time... it looks like argentina, with $50B in reserves, is ready to do that but only if the imf keeps their collective noses out of it... believe me, no love is lost between argentina and the imf...

A meeting of Argentina's president with her French counterpart may provide new stimulus to talks with the Paris Club over Argentina's $6.3 billion debt, Argentina's finance minister said on Sunday.

Argentina defaulted in late 2001 and made an early repayment of about $10 billion owed to the International Monetary Fund in 2005. It is still in talks over the remaining debt with the Paris Club of 19 creditor countries, including France, Germany and the United States.

[...]

Since the default, Argentina's economy has boomed and the country has been facing increasing pressures to pay its debt as it has accumulated more than $50 billion in reserves.

The [Argentina's finance minister, Martin Lousteau] said that any deal with the Paris Club would have to respect Argentina's sovereignty and give the country time to pay the debt.

Lousteau ruled out any involvement of the IMF as part the negotiations. "That's non-negotiable", he said.

you tell 'em, martin...

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Argentina and the Falklands - paging Margaret Thatcher

c'mon, cristina... don't start a distraction here... you've got enough to deal with without stirring up a hornets' nest...

Argentina's claim to the Falkland Islands, which remain in British hands after the 1982 war between the two countries, is "inalienable," President Cristina Kirchner said Wednesday.

"The sovereign claim to the Malvinas Islands is inalienable," she said in a speech marking the 26th anniversary of Argentina's ill-fated invasion of the islands, located 480 kilometers (300 miles) off shore.

The April 2, 1982 invasion prompted then British prime minister Margaret Thatcher to deploy naval forces to retake the Falklands, known as the Malvinas in Spanish.

The short, bloody conflict led to Argentina's surrender on June 14, 1982 after the death of 649 Argentines and 255 Britons.

oh c'mon... this is just gratuitous rabble-rousing... the smarter argentines know full well that it was unbelievably stupid to have started the conflict in the first damn place... yeah, sure, they think the falklands malvinas belongs to them but they also don't want to make another stupid move like provoking the uk into another senseless war...

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Argentina's president wants to keep citizens fed but she's between a rock and a hard place

what's happening in argentina is a microcosm of the crisis that's threatening food supplies, particularly for the most vulnerable, throughout the world...

the push to biofuels has caused, in argentina as in many other places, a massive rush to clear uncultivated land (driving through the argentine pampa, there are massive fires every few kilometers where cleared natural vegetation is being burned) for soy production, and an equally massive shift to producing soy in lieu of other food crops... a lot of the big players (most notably cargill, the biggest privately-held company in the world that most people have never heard of) are adding vast chunks of land to their already vast holdings, leaving global agricultural production in ever fewer hands... cargill already owns most of its own world-wide distribution network - ports, storage facilities, ships, barges, railroad cars - and that vertical integration, from seed to soil to harvest to shipment to mill, insures a virtual monopolistic control...

the consequences of this is that world food and agricultural commodity prices are soaring world-wide, and national leaders, like cristina fernandez de kirchner, are acutely aware that their citizens, particularly the poor, are at great risk of not being able to afford to eat... thus the export tax increases on soy and similar taxes on rice that have recently been levied in countries such as thailand and vietnam, and on wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans in china in an effort to keep food in the country instead of being exported...

argentina is an agricultural powerhouse, but its farmers, like the rest of its citizens, are fed up with government interference and have been for some time, and their traditional show of frustration is a strike, usually in the form of blockading roads and interfering with the flow of commerce... that's precisely what we've been seeing in the past few weeks after cristina announced the increase in agricultural export taxes...

Almost three weeks of roadblocks by farmers have caused food shortages, paralyzed grain exports from agricultural powerhouse Argentina and turned into a major political conflict for President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

The center-left government said it would give small farmers a rebate on new, higher taxes for soy and sunflower seed exports, as well as other benefits such as compensation for transportation costs for small farmers far from markets.

[...]

But farm leaders said in a news conference they would continue protests that have blocked highways and held back farm goods since March 13, making beef, dairy, chicken and produce scarce in the capital.

here's cristina's dilemma...

The president said on Monday it was important for Argentina to make sure soy did not crowd out other crops that are important for the domestic market.

She said the higher taxes on soy exports would help control inflation on food items in Argentina and added that unbridled soy production could deplete soil quality and has caused deforestation.

imho, she's trying to do the right thing in an impossible no-win situation...

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Is the U.S. using Colombia to instigate a new proxy war in Latin America?

i've been following the colombia, ecuador and venezuela story which, btw, is one hell of a lot bigger story here in latin america than it is in the u.s...

most americans are unaware of just how much u.s. money goes into colombia, so much, in fact, that it can, for all practical purposes, be considered a client state of the u.s... for starters, check this graphic from today's edition of the argentine newspaper, la nacion that compares the armed forces of the three countries, something you likely won't see in the u.s. media... rest assured those sizable military assets in colombia are heavily subsidized by the u.s...


(Click on graphic for scalable version)

so, if i'm right, and the u.s. is indeed setting things up for a war by proxy between colombia and venezuela, let's see what's being tossed out there by way of inflammatory propaganda...

let's move right into high gear with the title and teaser of an editorial in today's wapo (where else?)...

Allies of Terrorism

The presidents of Venezuela and Ecuador are revealed as backers of the criminals who fight Colombia's democracy.

but wait... it gets better...

the ap from yesterday...

Colombia: Rebels considering dirty bombs

Colombia's vice president on Tuesday defended his country's attack on a rebel base on Ecuadorean soil, telling a U.N. disarmament panel that the leftist guerrillas were trying to acquire radioactive material that could be used to make "dirty bombs."

Vice President Francisco Santos said evidence in two computers found after the attack indicated rebels trying to acquire radioactive material — "the primary basis for generating dirty weapons of mass destruction and terrorism."

got your adrenaline pumping yet...?

still more...

Colombia seeks criminal charges against Chavez

President Alvaro Uribe said today that his government would ask the International Criminal Court to try Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez for financing and supporting Colombia’s main rebel group.

The Uribe government claims documents found in the laptop of a slain commander of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia indicate Chavez’s government recently gave $300 million to the group known as the FARC.

The United States and the European Union classify the FARC as an international terrorist organization.

and, of course, the bush administration, always eager to take down anybody who doesn't toe the line of united states global hegemony (read: hugo chávez), trots out george to make sure everybody knows how strongly the u.s. backs colombia (read: wants a free trade agreement)...

Statement by the President on Colombia

THE PRESIDENT: This morning I spoke to President Uribe of Colombia. He updated me on the situation in his country, including the continuing assault by narco-terrorists, as well as the provocative maneuvers by the regime in Venezuela.

I told the President that America fully supports Colombia's democracy, and that we firmly oppose any acts of aggression that could destabilize the region. I told him that America will continue to stand with Colombia as it confronts violence and terror and fights drug traffickers.

President Uribe told me that one of the most important ways America can demonstrate its support for Colombia is by moving forward with a free trade agreement that we negotiated. The free trade agreement will show the Colombian people that democracy and free enterprise lead to a better life. It will help President Uribe counter the radical vision of those who are seeking to undermine democracy and create divisions within our hemisphere.

meanwhile, you have to travel all the way across the u.s. to find something that even faintly resembles genuine news reporting about what's REALLY going on here in latin america...

from the la times...

Neighbors take aim at Colombia over incursion

An increasingly isolated Colombia came under heavy criticism from its neighbors at an emergency Organization of American States session Tuesday for killing a top Colombian rebel leader in Ecuador last weekend.

A sense of crisis has enveloped the region as diplomats worked to avoid an armed conflict that could be devastating to a continent that has successfully transitioned into a mostly democratic region after the military juntas and "dirty wars" of the 1970s and 1980s.

Virtually all South American nations, though urging patience, have denounced the cross-border attack that killed Raul Reyes, the No. 2 commander of the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC.

yes, that's right, folks... the countries of latin america are united in their opposition to colombia's action... but, naturally, the lone voice of support at the oas meeting was ----- well, golly ----- the u.s...

One of Colombia's few backers at the OAS meeting was acting U.S. representative J. Robert Manzanares, who said the Colombian troops ordered into Ecuador had a right to "pursue this terrorist menace."

something else unreported by u.s. media is that argentina's president, cristina fernandez de kirchner, is flying to caracas this afternoon to hold a long-scheduled meeting with chávez to sign a broad agreement exchanging argentine food for venezuelan energy... however, the tension in the region, understandably, is adding a new twist to the meeting...

from an article in today's mercopress...

CK calls for peace and confirms planned Venezuela trip
[CK = Cristina Kirchner]

[...]

“There are no changes to the presidential trip to Caracas on Wednesday”, said Casa Rosada [Casa Rosada is the Argentine equivalent of the U.S. White House] sources quoted by the Buenos Aires press.

Argentine analysts don’t discard last minute changes given the rapidly escalating military tension and accusations between the three countries involved.

here's the REALLY interesting part of the above article, information almost guaranteed NOT to be reported in u.s. media...

Argentine government officials revealed that Mrs. Kirchner talked to Chile’s Michelle Bachelet and Brazil’s Lula da Silva, among others, trying to cool the situation and in search of a regional diplomatic stance to find a solution.

Apparently following on Brazil’s suggestion, the conflict should not leave the region, should avoid the UN and most important keep down the incidence of United States. The Brazilian president foreign affairs advisor Marcos Aurelio said that the “best way” to solve the crisis is in a “South American environment” and anticipated Brasilia would seek support from Argentina and Chile to join the group of countries interested in “a maximum reduction of tension”, and leaving aside “partners” from outside the region.

translation: dear george... keep your nose the hell out...

my assessment is, given the heavy use of the "terrorism" talking point, the accusations of wmd and genocide, the call to protect "democracy," and the fact that george and the neocons can't seem to get the iran war off the ground, our war-mongering leaders have decided to open up another front, using colombia as a lever to go after two more energy-rich opec countries, both of whom have been telling the u.s. where we can stick it...

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U.S. issues indictments for crimes committed in Argentina? Help me out here...

seriously, help me out here... i posted on this story back in early october, even though it occurred in early august... (yeah, sometimes i'm a bit slow... so sue me...!)

from the washington post...

Days after authorities discovered a suitcase full of nearly $800,000 that had been taken on a private airplane carrying Argentine and Venezuelan officials, one of those officials has resigned and suspicions of a government scandal have grown.

A Venezuelan businessman was detained at a Buenos Aires airport Saturday when customs officials found $790,550 in undeclared cash in his luggage. The incident preceded Monday’s arrival here of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, leading to questions about the possibility of a link between the businessman and the Venezuelan or Argentine governments.

Aeropuerto Internacional Ezeiza, Buenos Aires

ANYWAYZ, i've been following the story excerpted below for the past week, figuring it was going to cause some heartburn for officials in both argentina and venezuela, and, sure enough, it has...

A U.S. grand jury indicted four Venezuelans and a Uruguayan on Thursday on charges of acting as unregistered foreign agents for Venezuela who allegedly tried to cover up a scheme to smuggle $800,000 in cash to Argentina.

The indictment formalizes charges brought last week when four of the five were arrested in connection with the case, which touched off corruption allegations in South America and diplomatic tensions between Washington and Buenos Aires.

U.S. prosecutors say the men represented the anti-U.S. government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and alleged in court that one of the defendants said the money was destined for the campaign of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who won Argentina's presidential election in October.

[...]

The Venezuelan-American businessman accused of trying to smuggle the $800,000 in a suitcase into Argentina visited the presidential palace two days after the incident, an Argentine prosecutor said on Thursday.

The money was seized by Argentine customs in August.

The case has caused an uproar in Argentine. Chavez has accused Washington of seeking to undermine Argentine-Venezuelan relations, while Washington says its probe is not politically motivated.

Prosecutor Maria Luz Rivas Diez said a former Argentine government employee testified the man with the suitcase, Guido Antonini Wilson, visited Argentina's presidential palace two days after the money was confiscated.

"Apparently he was with other people at a sort of toast or celebration, while in another office an accord was being signed with Venezuela," Rivas Diez told Radio Del Plata.

Argentine government officials, who allowed Antonini to leave the country but now seek his extradition from the United States to question him about possible money laundering, did not immediately comment.

The case -- dubbed the "suitcase scandal" by Argentine media -- erupted after Antonini carried the cash on a private jet chartered by Argentina's government to ferry Argentine and Venezuelan officials from Caracas to Buenos Aires.

[...]

On Wednesday, Argentina's Congress, in which Fernandez's center-left coalition holds a majority, passed a resolution condemning the United States over the investigation.

Fernandez, a former first lady and senator, succeeded her husband, former President Nestor Kirchner, who has publicly accused Washington of engineering a smear campaign against his wife.

now, HERE'S my big question... where does the u.s. get off indicting these guys for a crime that DIDN'T EVEN TAKE PLACE INSIDE THE U.S...? anyone...?

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Not-so-amazing divergence of opinion on Argentina's presidential election

prompted by Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's victory in this past sunday's presidential election in argentina, the pundits weigh in, and a fascinating juxtaposition of perspectives it is...

here's one point of view that paints a very positive picture of how argentina's managed its recovery by repudiating the imf and its policies, but neglects to mention anything about the seamy reality that underlies literally everything in the country...

from the la times op-ed page...

[T]he authorities made sure that their currency didn't rise too high and didn't swing wildly as a result of movements in financial markets. (Here in the U.S., where we have shed more than 3 million manufacturing jobs since 2001 -- the bulk of them lost because of an overvalued dollar -- we might take note.) They also kept interest rates low and made growth, rather than the lowest possible inflation, the top priority.

These policies are mostly a no-no among central bankers and economists, and Argentina had a few showdowns with the IMF, including a brief temporary default to the fund in September 2003. But the fund backed down, and most of the defaulted international creditors ended up settling for 35 cents on the dollar in 2005.

Of course, Argentina hasn't gotten a lot of foreign direct investment in the last five years, and it cannot directly borrow in international bond markets. But these handicaps -- which if you read the business press should spell doom -- turned out not to be all that important. Nor are they permanent. In time, foreign investors and lenders will find their way back to a fast-growing economy.

[...]

Getting basic macroeconomic policies right for your own economy is a lot more important than pleasing international financial markets. That goes double for failed international financial institutions like the IMF. The fund not only oversaw the train wreck that collapsed Argentina's economy from 1998 to 2002, it opposed the major policies that drove Argentina's remarkable recovery.

The fact that Argentina's break with the IMF and its policies was key to the country's economic success also has implications for other countries. Over the last quarter of a century, the fund and its allied institutions -- run from Washington -- have presided over Latin America's worst long-term growth performance in more than a century. As a result, most governments in the region have moved away from the IMF. Its loan portfolio in the region has shrunk from $49 billion just four years ago to less than $1 billion today. But it still holds sway in many poor countries.

Argentina's new government will face challenges, the kind brought about by a fast-growing economy: keeping inflation in check and assuring adequate supplies of energy. But these problems are manageable. Of course, there are analysts who argue otherwise, but their forecasts over the last five years have not been very accurate.

so, ya got that...? bad imf, good argentina...

now, let's jump across the country to the wapo op-ed page, where we're offered the standard beltway point of view...

Argentina -- and Ms. Fernandez de Kirchner's Peronist party -- still have not learned the lessons of the country's history. That could make the coming years more turbulent.

[...]

For the last century, Argentina has lived by a cycle of economic boom and bust, driven by prices for its agricultural exports, by the fondness of its governments for populist policies and by its resistance to playing by the usual rules of global financial markets. The boom under Mr. Kirchner, which followed the devastating bust of 2001, follows the usual pattern: It has been fueled by high prices for Argentine beef, wheat and soybeans, and by Mr. Kirchner's stiffing of international creditors, vast government spending, and controls on energy and food prices. The predictable result has been disinvestment in the energy sector that already has caused brownouts and mounting inflation that is probably double the official estimate of 9 percent annually.

The Kirchners managed to get through the election season by manipulating the inflation figures and bullying supermarkets into keeping prices down.

[...]

Ms. Fernandez de Kirchner ... can use her mandate to deliver the tough medicine the economy needs -- including energy price and interest rate increases, a revaluation of the currency and a reconciliation with the International Monetary Fund, which holds the key to renewed foreign investment. Or she can pursue her husband's populist course until it produces another crash.

message from the wapo...? good imf, bad argentina...

even tho' i live there part-time, i am not going to present myself as a fount of argentina truth, but i do know a few things... there's a little truth in both points of view as well as some things left out... imf policies have seriously damaged many countries, although perhaps none as spectacularly as argentina... was it all the imf's fault...? of course not, but the imf does deserve a large portion of the blame... does argentina need to reconcile with the imf...? maybe, and they're trying, but i think they're now smart enough to not ever again let the imf dictate their macroeconomic policies... are price controls a good way to combat inflation...? honestly, i don't know... my guess is, probably not... is inflation higher than the government reports...? my shoe leather analysis says, oh, yeah... when i am now paying almost double cab fare, a 2/3 increase for a bag of bran cereal and a liter of drinkable yogurt, i ain't buyin' the 9% figure...

naturally, the wapo also gets in a dig about hugo chávez, venezuela and the bolivarian revolution, but neither writer talks about argentina's alliance with venezuela, both for economic development loans and energy supplies, an important omission, imho... also, neither article mentions the on-going and seemingly unmanageable corruption at all levels of argentina society... basically, i have found the average argentine to be honest, decent and well-intended, but they have become so jaded and resigned to ever-present corruption that most of them just throw up their hands, a state of mind that leads to this, another fact that neither article deigned to mention...

[O]nly 73 per cent of electors voted, the lowest turnout since 1928 in a country where voting is compulsory.

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Exit polls say Cristina won 46%, enough to avoid a runoff election

looks like the hillary of the southern hemisphere pulled it off...

Argentina's glamorous first lady, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, on Sunday became the first woman in her country's history to be elected president, exit polls said.

The data, broadcast immediately after polling stations in Buenos Aires closed, suggested she had won 46 percent of the ballots -- enough for her to be declared the outright victor without a runoff.

The runner-up, on a distant 24 percent, was a former lawmaker and beauty queen, Elisa Carrio, according to poll figures given by television networks TN and Cronica. The other 12 candidates trailed even further behind.

Official figures were due to be released at 9:00pm (0000 GMT Monday).

at least four more years of a kirchner in power... here's hoping it's for the best...

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The Argentine Hillary poised to win the presidency tomorrow

must. not. forget... argentina's presidential election is tomorrow, altho' there's hardly any question about the outcome...

President Nestor Kirchner and his wife are poised to launch a new political dynasty Sunday in an election that promises to replace him with her.

Argentines are grateful to Kirchner for engineering a recovery from a 2001 economic crisis that savaged the middle class, and that has translated into such broad support for his wife, Sen. Cristina Fernandez, that she will likely avoid a second round.

Argentine law prevents more than two consecutive terms, but a husband- and-wife team could alternate in power for as long as their support continues.

[...]

Fernandez's two main rivals—former lawmaker Elisa Carrio and former economy minister Roberto Lavagna—have criticized Fernandez for failing to build a platform, saying she is merely trying to ride in on her husband's coattails.

[...]

Dubbed "Queen Cristina" by many critics—and "the queen of Botox" by Carrio—Fernandez campaigned in gritty slums in designer clothes, and many joked that her frequent campaign trips abroad were focused more on shopping than politics.

[...]

To win without a runoff, Fernandez must get either 45 percent of the vote or 40 percent with at least a 10-percent lead over her closest rival.

A poll released Friday by Poliarquia Consultores suggested Fernandez would get 42 percent, compared with 17 percent Carrio and 12 percent for Lavagna. The poll had a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.

lavagna is the former minister of the economy under kirchner who largely engineeered argentina's massive debt default and bond re-financing scheme... he resigned his post a couple of years ago and i'm not sure exactly why... his replacement, felica miceli, had to resign earlier this year due to some shenanigans over money... i've posted extensively on argentina and it's on-going issues, but i'm not going to bother digging up the links right now... feel free to do a search if you're so moved...

ya gotta love the snark about "the queen of botox..."

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U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's shipment of $80K to Argentina's Central Bank stolen at Buenos Aires airport

Aeropuerto Internacional Ezeiza, Buenos Aires

another caper from down south...

Two airport Customs workers were under arrest yesterday in connection with the disappearance of 80,000 dollars from a bag entering Argentina from the United States. After searching the lockers of freight and Customs workers at Ezeiza airport police also found cameras, cell phones, perfumes, gold watches and other valuables which they believe to have been stolen from air passengers’ luggage.

The deputy-trustee of aeronautics, Julio Postiglioni, said that there were “many indicators” to suggest that the 80,000 dollars missing, after arriving from a United Airlines flight from Washington, were stolen directly from the plane’s cargo bay as it was stationed at Ezeiza airport. The money had been sent from the Federal Reserve of the United States and was en route to the Central Bank in Argentina.

ok, now remember, this is ARGENTINA we're talking about, where folks don't just grumble about their privacy being invaded... they STRIKE...!

On Thursday, baggage handlers went on strike for six hours in both Ezeiza International Airport and Jorge Newbery metropolitan airport in protest after police began searching their lockers. Workers accused police of “repressive tactics” in their investigation.

as a regular in and out of ezeiza and argentina, i'm always fascinated when i read the goings-on... i've posted several times on argentina's air traffic control (here and here), an oxymoron if there ever was one... i haven't posted on some of the larger recent scandals (with the exception of former economy minister, felisa miceli, and her bathroom cash stash)... but here's a rundown of recent history...

The spectacular part of the news surrounding Thursday’s surprise airport strike was the robbery of 80,000 Central Bank-bound dollars from Washington’s Federal Reserve at Ezeiza international airport — especially coming less than two months after a far larger sum of undeclared currency [$800K*] was detected in a Venezuelan businessman’s suitcase at Aeroparque downtown airport, not to mention the 2004 Southern Winds cocaine-laden suitcase scandal now undergoing trial.

* oh, yeah, about that $800K...

Days after authorities discovered a suitcase full of nearly $800,000 that had been taken on a private airplane carrying Argentine and Venezuelan officials, one of those officials has resigned and suspicions of a government scandal have grown.

A Venezuelan businessman was detained at a Buenos Aires airport Saturday when customs officials found $790,550 in undeclared cash in his luggage. The incident preceded Monday’s arrival here of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, leading to questions about the possibility of a link between the businessman and the Venezuelan or Argentine governments.

on the snarky side, argentina is so-o-o-ooo small time when compared with the billions disappearing in iraq...

p.s. argentina's presidential election will be held this month on the 28th, where current president nestor kirchner's wife, cristina fernandez de kirchner, is the leading candidate... does that bring anything to mind...? hmmmmm...?

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Felicia Miceli, Argentina's Minister of the Economy, quits after cash found in her office bathroom

ok... three things to keep in mind... one, it's argentina... two, it's a presidential election year in argentina - october 28 - ... three, miceli is a close ally of the current argentine president, nestor kirchner, whose WIFE (yes, his wife), cristina fernandez de kirchner, is running to replace him... why, my goodness gracious, the possibilities for political gamesmanship are positively breathtaking...

Argentina's economy minister has resigned after being asked to testify about storing $64,000 (47,000 euros; £32,000) in her office toilet. Felisa Miceli said the cash was lent to her by her brother to buy a house. But a prosecutor investigating the case called on Mrs Miceli to be questioned under oath about the money. The case has caused embarrassment for the government in Argentina, where tax evasion is common and officials are often suspected of corruption.

[...]

President Nestor Kirchner had initially stood by his minister, who presided over a period of dramatic economic growth in Argentina. But she could not provide any credible explanation and in the end her position became untenable, says the BBC's Daniel Schweimler in Buenos Aires.

[...]

In newspaper interviews, Mrs Miceli said the cash had been lent to her to buy a house in the capital, Buenos Aires. "I was naive, clumsy. It was a mistake... there could have been negligence but I am sure I haven't committed any crime," she was quoted as saying by Clarin daily.

"It's a political attack, not against me, but against the government during a political year," she said after the scandal broke. Presidential elections are due on 28 October in which Cristina Kirchner, the wife of the president, is a leading candidate.

The investigating prosecutor said he had traced the origin of the money and implied in a statement that that minister had been involved in a cover up, and was suspected of destroying documents. La Nacion quoted Mrs Miceli as saying the affair "makes me look suspicious and that truly hurts. The situation is much more simple and normal".

did i mention it's argentina...?

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