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Monday, November 28, 2011

The Euro Zone is on the edge [UPDATE]



spiegel...
A Continent Stares into the Abyss

Fear is spreading through the financial markets as investors pull their money out of the crisis-stricken euro-zone countries. With Chancellor Angela Merkel ophttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifposed to using the ECB's firepower to solve the crisis, the monetary union appears increasingly in danger of breaking apart. Some economists are even arguing for Germany to reintroduce the deutsche mark.

mm-hmmmm...

[UPDATE]

it looks like barack is worried about the global economy his re-election prospects...

from the guardian [emphasis added]...

Barack Obama is to press European Union officials to reach a definitive solution to their sovereign debt crisis, which is emerging as a major 2012 US election worry.

As Germany and France scramble to tighten budget controls across the eurozone, the European council president, Herman Van Rompuy, and the European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, will face tough questions from Obama at the White House on Monday on how much longer the crisis might go on.

No breakthroughs are expected from the meeting, which will not include the European heads of state who need to make crucial decisions about the future of the 17-nation currency union.

But Van Rompuy and Barroso wield influence as heads of key EU institutions at the heart of efforts to fight the crisis, which has thrown the future of the eurozone into doubt at a moment of weakness for the global economy.

what's at the root of barack's 2012 worry, i wonder...? is it merely the prospect of losing votes or that the super-rich elites who pump vast amounts of cash into obama's campaign coffers might either not have enough to throw his way or, if they do, might not be willing to fork it over...?

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Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Eurozone breakup shock larger than Lehman

nouriel roubini...
The Eurozone eventual breakup shock could be larger than the fall of Lehman in 2008

In my view, there's a significant probability, more than 50 per cent, that over the next 12 months there's going to be another recession in most advanced economies," "Whether you call it a double dip recession, a continuation of the first recession or a second recession doesn't matter, it's semantic.

In a situation where it becomes disorderly, with defaults by a number of countries and a resulting exit of a number of states from the eurozone and its eventual break-up, the shock that could occur ... could be as large, if not larger, than the fall of Lehman in 2008.

i've made a habit of listening to roubini...

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Saturday, July 02, 2011

Greece should "tell the IMF and EU to go to hell"

our super-rich, elites, their banksters and governmental puppets are bound and determined to continue stomping out any semblance of a middle class and any trace of a social contract anywhere they might still exist... since there are still a few governments that take the responsibility to foster the common good seriously, they must be set up and dispatched expeditiously... knocking over greece, a country at the forefront of populism and democracy for well over 2000 years, is the first european domino to seriously totter and it looks like it's going to fall... yes, and then there's italy, spain, ireland and portugal...
Plan to Spoon-Feed Greece to Death

The original bailout was 110 billion Euros, now it takes another $85 billion (and counting). When the fire sale of Greek assets does not bring in enough money, the banks and IMF will place even harsher terms on Greece.

Notice the plan to spoon-feed payments to Greece in 12 billion-euro bites while demanding "progress". This will ensure Greece is sucked dry (at fire sale prices) of any government assets worth owning by the time the "bailout" is over.

Portugal, and Ireland should make note of the process. The same "bailout" plan will be used on them unless they tell the IMF and EU to go to hell.

note to those of you in germany who might be looking on smugly and thinking about how well your economy is doing relative to the rest of the eu and the world... don't think for a minute that you're immune... your plan simply hasn't yet been put in motion...

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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Understanding the war on the gold dinar as a means of stepping "out of the dark void of brutal exploitation and greed"

john perkins...
According to the IMF, Libya’s Central Bank is 100% state owned. The IMF estimates that the bank has nearly 144 tons of gold in its vaults. It is significant that in the months running up to the UN resolution that allowed the US and its allies to send troops into Libya, Muammar al-Qaddafi was openly advocating the creation of a new currency that would rival the dollar and the euro. In fact, he called upon African and Muslim nations to join an alliance that would make this new currency, the gold dinar, their primary form of money and foreign exchange. They would sell oil and other resources to the US and the rest of the world only for gold dinars.

The US, the other G-8 countries, the World Bank, IMF, BIS, and multinational corporations do not look kindly on leaders who threaten their dominance over world currency markets or who appear to be moving away from the international banking system that favors the corporatocracy. Saddam Hussein had advocated policies similar to those expressed by Qaddafi shortly before the US sent troops into Iraq.

[...]

Understanding the war against Quaddafi as a war in defense of empire is another step in the direction of helping us ask ourselves whether we want to continue along this path of empire-building. Or do we instead want to honor the democratic principles we are taught to believe are the foundations of our country?

History teaches that empires do not endure; they collapse or are overthrown. Wars ensue and another empire fills the vacuum. The past sends a compelling message. We must change. We cannot afford to watch history repeat itself.

Let us not allow this empire to collapse and be replaced by another. Instead, let us all vow to create a new consciousness. Let the grass-roots movements in the Middle East – fostered by the young who must live with the future and are fueled through social networks – inspire us to demand that our country, our financial institutions and the corporations that depend on us to buy their goods and services commit themselves to fashioning a world that is sustainable, just, peaceful, and prosperous for all.

We stand at the threshold. It is time for you and me to step across that threshold, to move out of the dark void of brutal exploitation and greed into the light of compassion and cooperation.

compassion and cooperation... what a concept...!

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Friday, June 04, 2010

Talk about an understated headline

check it out...
U.S. Adds Jobs in May, but Private Hiring Disappoints

so... not good news, for sure, but certainly not disastrous either, right...?
A shadow fell across America’s economic recovery on Friday, as the Labor Department’s monthly report showed that private sector job growth was considerably weaker than expected.

The headline numbers suggested a reason to be optimistic — employers added 431,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent in April.

wrong...
But the underlying numbers showed that almost all of the job growth came from the 411,000 workers hired by the federal government to help with the Census. Most of those jobs will disappear in a few months.

By contrast, the private sector created 41,000, far short of expectations of 150,000 to 180,000 jobs. And the number of long-term unemployed, those who out of work for 27 or more weeks, remained at its highest rate since the Labor Department began collecting such data in the 1940s.

how about a headline a little bit more in line with the truth, like this one for instance...

Long-term unemployment remains highest since the 1940s

our precious stock market isn't easily fooled, however...

The markets were sent skidding immediately after the opening, after the Labor Department’s report on job growth in May fell short of expectations.

[...]

The Dow Jones industrial average closed below 10,000 for the third time this year, ending at 9,931.22, down 324.06, or 3.2 percent. It was the Dow’s lowest close in almost four months. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 3.4 percent, and the Nasdaq composite declined 3.6 percent.

ya gotta love that "short of expectations" part... no shit...

but it ain't only the labor market stats that are weighing things down... no sir...

The euro also continued its decline, dropping to less than $1.20 on concerns about the fiscal troubles in Europe.

While the markets have been bedeviled for weeks by worries mostly over debt problems in Spain, Portugal and Greece, the boundaries of the problem shifted to Hungary after its government sent worrying signals about its finances. Investors fled the country’s assets, and the euro slipped to $1.1992 in afternoon trading in London, its lowest level since March 2006.

our so-called news media, no doubt responding to the urging of our super-rich elites, continue to try to paper over the deepening world financial crisis... but no matter how much they try to soft-pedal it, things just ain't gettin' better...

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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Roubini: no Glass-Steagall-Lite

when i hear the voice of reason, i recognize it immediately... it's simple, straightforward and completely understandable by even the most brain-cell challenged among us... it's also a pure breath of fresh air amidst all the spin and propagandized crap we're routinely fed...
We must be capable of going beyond the Volcker Rule, which is essentially Glass-Steagall-Lite. We need to go all the way and implement the kind of restrictions between commercial banking and investment banking that existed under Glass-Steagall.

[...]

If you look at the cases against Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, leaving aside whether there was any fraud or illegal activity—that's for a court to decide—there is still a fundamental conflict of interest. These institutions are always on every side of every deal. That's an inherent conflict of interest that cannot be addressed with Chinese walls [internal company barriers between different aspects of its business].

There are no benefits from these economies of scale and scope, as we've seen from the disasters at Citigroup, AIG and others. And there are massive conflicts of interest. So I would separate all of these financial businesses under separate institutions, and I would go back to the kind of restrictions that we had under Glass-Steagall.

yes, nouriel, but that would put restrictions on unfettered greed and that is something our super-rich elites will simply not allow...

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Friday, April 18, 2008

Euro hits $1.59, Merril Lynch continues its free fall, oil climbs past $115 a barrel, and rice is now 3x higher than 2007

please note... ALL of these stories are interconnected in very fundamental ways, all of which point to the continuing collapse of the global financial markets... hitting bottom, imho, is a long way off...

is it even possible to comprehend $30B worth of losses in one company in only three quarters...?

Merrill Lynch announces job cuts after $2 billion loss

Merrill Lynch, the investment bank, posted a loss Thursday and announced that it would lay off about 2,900 additional workers. Including about 1,000 jobs already eliminated this year, the company's work force is to shrink by 10 percent, or about 4,000 jobs, over the course of 2008.

The bank reported worst-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, including $6.5 billion in write-downs and adjustments to assets in its mortgage, leveraged finance and other divisions. The write-downs bring the total taken by Merrill Lynch in the last three quarters to more than $30 billion.

i'm working with a gentleman here who lives in france but is an employee of the u.s. company that runs the project... he is paid in dollars which he converts to euros... he has lost nearly HALF the value of his salary over the past year...


The euro retreated from a record high against the dollar in choppy trade Thursday after a top euro zone official called recent euro appreciation "undesirable."

[...]

That sparked concern that G7 officials may be considering coordinated currency intervention to stem the dollar's decline.

it wasn't very long ago, only a matter of six months, that oil over $100 a barrel seemed unimaginable...


Oil prices hit all-time highs above $115 a barrel Thursday as the dollar continued to weaken and on reports that oil and gasoline stocks in the United States were lower than expected.

and look at rice, a food staple for more than 2/3 of the world's population...
The sense of crisis in the rice market showed no signs of easing as prices continued their record climb and a tender from the Philippines, the world's top importer, attracted offers to sell only about two-thirds of the half-a-million tons it had sought, Reuters reported from Bangkok.

In Bangkok, Thai 100 percent B-grade white rice, considered the world's benchmark, hit $950 per ton, three times its price at the start of 2007.

i don't know how anyone can look at the above four items and not sense impending doom...

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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Oil - record high... Dollar - record low...

the perfect storm...

both...

Oil prices strike record high 102.08 dollars

Crude oil prices surged to a record above 102 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, energised by the weak US dollar and concerns that OPEC could cut output next week, analysts said.

and...

Dollar plunges to fresh record euro low


The dollar plunged to another record low against the European single currency on Wednesday as a stream of negative US data undermined the greenback, analysts said.

In morning deals, the euro surged as high as 1.5088 dollars, after smashing through the 1.50 barrier for the first ever time in US trade on Tuesday.

so stop stalling... let's have the collapse already...

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Sunday, January 06, 2008

A global currency? Just check the horse this guy rides out on...

(this is an important article, and i'm going to devote some extra space to it here...)

the thought of a global currency presided over by our current crop of global monied elites chills me to my very core, to say nothing of the fact that this article was penned by a senior staffer of the council on foreign relations, one of the principal organizations serving those who already hold most of the world in thrall...

Over the past 25 years, devastating currency crises have hit countries across Latin America and Asia, as well as countries just beyond the borders of western Europe -- most notably Russia and Turkey.

it's interesting that he only refers to latin america in general rather than specifically pointing to argentina, the victim of the worst economic and currency implosion ever, a disaster certainly due in part to argentina's own imprudent policies, but even more so to its attempts to abide by the neoliberal dictates of the u.s., the imf, the world bank, and the global capitalist banking system... but, rather than acknowledging that fact, the author excoriates joseph stiglitz, a nobel prize winning economist, a member of former president clinton's economic advisory panel, and former chief economist for the world bank, who made a clear case for the trainwreck that neoliberal economic policies have wreaked on the developing world (see Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents)...
Antiglobalization economists have turned the problem on its head by absolving governments (except the one in Washington) and instead blaming crises on markets and their institutional supporters, such as the IMF -- "dictatorships of international finance," in the words of the Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. "Countries are effectively told that if they don't follow certain conditions, the capital markets or the IMF will refuse to lend them money," writes Stiglitz. "They are basically forced to give up part of their sovereignty."

Is this right? Are markets failing, and will restoring lost sovereignty to governments put an end to financial instability? This is a dangerous misdiagnosis.

i can't speak to monetary sovereignty, but i can speak first-hand to the damage that neoliberal, "market-driven" policies, as pushed by the money and power-brokers of the first world, have caused, particularly in latin america and southeast europe...

so, what does this highly-credentialed pooh-bah think we should do...? why, leave it up to "those who know best" to continue holding on to the purse strings, of course...

The right course is not to return to a mythical past of monetary sovereignty, with governments controlling local interest and exchange rates in blissful ignorance of the rest of the world. Governments must let go of the fatal notion that nationhood requires them to make and control the money used in their territory. National currencies and global markets simply do not mix; together they make a deadly brew of currency crises and geopolitical tension and create ready pretexts for damaging protectionism. In order to globalize safely, countries should abandon monetary nationalism and abolish unwanted currencies, the source of much of today's instability.

and what do you suppose is driving this noble idea of reducing world currencies to dollars, euros, or some other, as yet unborn, currency...? could it be this...?
Just a few decades ago, vital foreign investment in developing countries was driven by two main motivations: to extract raw materials for export and to gain access to local markets heavily protected against competition from imports.

[...]

This cozy scenario was undermined by the advent of globalization. Trade liberalization has opened up most developing countries to imports (in return for export access to developed countries), and huge declines in the costs of communication and transport have revolutionized the economics of global production and distribution. Accordingly, the reasons for foreign companies to invest in developing countries have changed. The desire to extract commodities remains, but companies generally no longer need to invest for the sake of gaining access to domestic markets. It is generally not necessary today to produce in a country in order to sell in it (except in large economies such as Brazil and China).

At the same time, globalization has produced a compelling new reason to invest in developing countries: to take advantage of lower production costs by integrating local facilities into global chains of production and distribution.

[...]

In a globalizing economy, monetary stability and access to sophisticated financial services are essential components of an attractive local investment climate. And in this regard, developing countries are especially poorly positioned.

[...]

[G]rowth today depends more and more on investment decisions funded and funneled through the global financial system. (Borrowing in low-cost yen to finance investments in Europe while hedging against the yen's rise on a U.S. futures exchange is no longer exotic.) Thus, unrestricted and efficient access to this global system -- rather than the ability of governments to manipulate parochial monetary policies -- has become essential for future economic development.

i hope you're following very carefully what this character is outlining here... i don't think it's stretching a point at all to say that he would like to see the very system that has given us the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and funneled massive amounts of cash to the already super-rich, extended across the globe without any inconvenient national governments standing in the way...

check out how he wraps everything up in a nice, neat package...

Since economic development outside the process of globalization is no longer possible, countries should abandon monetary nationalism. Governments should replace national currencies with the dollar or the euro or, in the case of Asia, collaborate to produce a new multinational currency over a comparably large and economically diversified area.

"...economic development outside the process of globalization is no longer possible..." mull that one over for a while, if you will...
Most of the world's smaller and poorer countries would clearly be best off unilaterally adopting the dollar or the euro, which would enable their safe and rapid integration into global financial markets. Latin American countries should dollarize; eastern European countries and Turkey, euroize.

ok, now for the truly hilarious conclusion... keep in mind that this article was written for the may/june 2007 edition of foreign affairs...
As for the United States, it needs to perpetuate the sound money policies of former Federal Reserve Chairs Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan and return to long-term fiscal discipline. This is the only sure way to keep the United States' foreign tailors, with their massive and growing holdings of dollar debt, feeling wealthy and secure. It is the market that made the dollar into global money -- and what the market giveth, the market can taketh away. If the tailors balk and the dollar fails, the market may privatize money on its own.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... < snort, sniff, choke > HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... < wipes tears from eyes > HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...

so much for all your erudition, you pompous asshole...


(thanks to casey at open your mind's eye...)

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