Abdullah's withdrawal

from al jazeera...



juan cole...

Matthew Green of the FT, reporting from Kabul, suggests that Abdullah Abdullah may still be open to a post in Hamid Karzai's cabinet. That outcome is not impossible given Afghanistan's mercurial politics. But it seems to me unlikely, since Abdullah is accusing his rival in the country's presidential contest, Hamid Karzai, of having attempted to steal the Aug. 20 election, and of running interference for corrupt members of the electoral commission. The reason Abdullah gave for pulling out of the race, that the elections were not going to be conducted transparently, is more of a thunderous condemnation than a coy offering of himself as a cabinet member. Still, Euronews also notes that Abdullah has not ruled out playing a role in a national unity government.

i chatted online this morning with a couple of afghan friends... the consensus seems to be that abdullah pulled out because he knew he was going to lose... one friend said that she was planning to vote for karzai even tho' she hates him just to keep abdullah from winning... the other friend said he wasn't planning to vote at all nor did he vote in the first round... he just sees it as choice between two different piles of shit...

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The UN wants Afghan election officials booted before a runoff, a runoff which may not be necessary

hmmmmm... the thick plottens...

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has said the UN wants more than half the top officials involved in Afghanistan's election replaced.

Mr Ban told the BBC that 200 officials who had been complicit in fraud should go, to ensure a run-off vote due next month was "transparent and credible".

yeah, it's probably not a bad idea to dump the afghan election officials that were complicit in vote fraud but i have just one question... what makes the un so sure they know who those officials ARE...?

in any case, it looks like developments over the past few days have forced abdullah and karzai to start some serious talk about a coalition government... abdullah had said all along that he wouldn't be willing to talk about a coalition unless and until karzai accepted that there had been election fraud... guess he's a man of his word...

Meanwhile the BBC's Andrew North in Kabul says there are indications that President Karzai and Mr Abdullah may reach some kind of deal, meaning that the run-off may not be required.

Mr Abdullah said he had spoken to Mr Karzai by phone, in what is said to be their first confirmed contact since the first round in August.

[...]

Speaking on the BBC's Newsnight programme on Tuesday, Mr Abdullah said a coalition government was unlikely, but if elections proved impossible for "practical reasons" the two rivals needed to talk to find an alternative solution.

There are concerns that holding a second round of voting in November could lead to a repeat of August's massive fraud, as well as logistical problems caused by winter weather, which could leave much of the north of the country inaccessible.

i'm in favor of a coalition simply because i don't see afghans trudging out for another vote when most of them didn't vote the first time around... add to that the possibility of snow and getting fingers cut off and it seems to me like it would be much better to forgo a runoff if they can agree on a coalition government...

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The EEC says the Karzai vote count didn't top 50% [UPDATES l & II]

after just reading this on the bbc news site, i got a text message from our security people here in kabul saying that our alert level was now "red"... we've been repeatedly told that would happen as a precaution against any civil unrest or potential violence related to the announcement of the election results...

A panel probing fraud claims in the Afghan election has found Hamid Karzai did not gain enough valid votes for an outright win, the BBC understands.

Preliminary results from August's first round had placed Mr Karzai comfortably over the 50% plus one vote threshold needed to avoid a run-off.

But officials have told the BBC the Electoral Complaints Commission (EEC) says Mr Karzai did not win above 50%.

Mr Karzai could now face a second round against main rival Abdullah Abdullah.

[...]

The ECC reports to the Independent Election Commission (IEC), which will make the final announcement on the election's outcome.

The IEC is widely regarded as pro-Karzai, but analysts say it is legally bound to accept the ECC's findings.

i still think a runoff, given the timing and the security situation, makes no sense... maybe this will force a coalition government with abdullah... stay tuned...

[UPDATE l]

we're sitting here waiting for karzai's response... word on the street is that he is NOT a happy camper which this snippet from the bbc seems to corroborate...

One source warned of a possible "train crash". Others are still hoping a compromise can emerge at this critical 11th hour.

President Karzai has repeatedly warned foreign countries not to interfere in the election process.

Sources say he firmly believes Western countries, in particular the United States and Britain, are conspiring to rob him of victory.

well, let's face it, the guy has a lot to lose, not the least of which is the torrent of cash that flows to his two brothers, mahmoud and wali...

[UPDATE II]

from al jazeera via juan cole...

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The on-going soap opera of the Afghan presidential election

the fallout from the afghanistan presidential election continues, none of it good...



juan cole points out that, with dr. abdullah abdullah now accusing president karzai of engineering the election using government resources, the likelihood of a positive resolution any time soon seems to be fast receding into the distance...

Abdullah wants there to be a run-off election, which likely will not be necessary by current rules, which require it only if no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote. But Abdullah believes that the votes that put Karzai up to 54% were at least in part fraudulent and the result of vote-buying with state monies. A run-off is also becoming difficult to hold unless it is scheduled very soon, because winter snows will limit the mobility of much of the population until the spring. But the Independent Electoral Commission is warning that a complete count of the first round may still be weeks away. For Afghanistan to be without a president all winter and spring could be disastrous, not only for the country but also for the Obama administration' s military strategy.

karzai's campaign headquarters just so happens to be two buildings away from the project office where i am sitting typing this post... needless to say, the street in front of that building that provided us convenient access to a main thoroughfare has been closed off with security barriers and guards... oh, well...

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Ashraf Ghani is changing the game of presidential politics in Afghanistan

it's tempting for me to fall into the "anybody but karzai" mindset just like i once did with my "anybody but bush" mantra, but i've got to say, the two main rivals for karzai's seat as the afghan president, abdullah abdullah and ashraf ghani, give me hope for the country...

i happen to have worked with mr. ghani's niece, one extremely sharp, selfless and committed woman, and she has often told me, such is the depth of her respect for her uncle, she would crawl on her hands and knees for many kilometers over broken glass to have the opportunity to work once again with him as she did when he was at the afghanistan finance ministry...

Ashraf Ghani, the most educated and Westernized of Afghanistan’s presidential candidates, is shaking up the campaign before Thursday’s election in unusual ways.

A former finance minister with a background in American academia and at the World Bank, Mr. Ghani, 60, says he is trying to change politics in Afghanistan. Using television and radio, Internet donations and student volunteers, as well as traditional networks like religious councils, he is seeking to reach out to young people, women and the poor, and do the unexpected: defeat President Hamid Karzai.

[...]

Mr. Ghani has been one of the most influential figures involved in building the current Afghan state. Appointed finance minister in 2002, he instituted a centralized revenue collection scheme, and oversaw the flow of billions of dollars of foreign assistance into the war-torn country.

Yet his scrupulousness made him enemies and, disillusioned with official corruption and Mr. Karzai’s leadership, he left the cabinet in 2004.

[...]

His main drawback is his aloofness. When serving in the cabinet, he came under criticism that after 24 years living away from Afghanistan, nearly half his life, he was out of touch with the people and too abrasive in his dealings with his fellow Afghans.

He left the country in the 1970s to study at the American University of Beirut, went on to earn a doctorate in anthropology at Columbia in 1982, and taught at Johns Hopkins University. In 1991, he joined the World Bank.

Like other Western-educated technocrats, he encountered on his return the resentment of those Afghans who had had no chance to leave and had suffered 30 years of war and privation.

But he says that is changing. He has sought to get closer to the Afghan people by holding an open house for the last 18 months and says he has received over 100,000 people from all over the country, which has informed the development of his policies.

“It has been the largest seminar in my life and I have been the sole student,” he said. “I connect back to the people because I have heard them, and I have heard some very harsh things. It’s been a relationship.”

also, given what i've read about abdullah abdullah (see my july 24 post here), i think that between the two of them, afghans may have some excellent options for replacing karzai who, imho, has amply demonstrated his incompetency and corruption...

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A sign of hope for dumping Karzai in the upcoming Afghan election...?

wouldn't it be loverly...?

from the nyt...

When Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the main election challenger to President Hamid Karzai, arrived here to campaign last weekend, thousands of supporters choked the six-mile drive from the airport. Cars were plastered with his posters. Motorbikes flew blue banners. Young men wearing T-shirts emblazoned with his face leapt aboard his car to embrace him to ecstatic cheers.

[...]

Mr. Karzai is still widely considered the front-runner in the campaign for the Aug. 20 presidential election. But Dr. Abdullah, who has the backing of the largest opposition group, the National Front, is the one candidate among the field of 41 who has a chance of forcing Mr. Karzai into a runoff, a contest between the top two vote-getters if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes in the first balloting.

but here's the part that gets my attention...

Dr. Abdullah, with a diplomat and a surgeon as his running mates, is seen as part of a younger generation of Afghans keen to move away from the nation’s reliance on warlords and older mujahedeen leaders and to clean up and recast the practice of governing.

To do that, he advocates the devolution of power from the strong presidency built up under Mr. Karzai to a parliamentary system that he says will be more representative. He is also calling for a system of electing officials for Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and nearly 400 districts as a way to build support for the government.

Those provincial governors are now appointed from Kabul, and many have been criticized for cronyism and corruption. Influential Shiite clerics here in Herat, who supported Mr. Karzai in the last election in 2004, are now so fed up with corrupt appointees that they have said they will back Dr. Abdullah this time.

Re-engaging the people is essential to reverse the lawlessness and insecurity that have reached a critical point in much of the country, Dr. Abdullah said. “They have managed to lose the people,” he said of the current government. “In fighting an insurgency, you lose the people and you lose the war.”

as the plane was on final approach to the kabul airport for my second visit to afghanistan last november, i looked out on the grim scene of mud houses, pollution and dreadful poverty and had an astonishing revelation... i had developed a real soft spot in my heart for afghanistan... "what's wrong with this picture?" i remember thinking but then had to admit that i had developed a great deal of affection for the afghans i had met and become friends with on my first visit... the people and their country had come to mean a great deal to me and that emotional attachment has only been strengthened over two more visits and will no doubt become even stronger on the fifth one coming up...

the afghans are just like people everywhere else around the world... they only want what we all want - a little peace and quiet, food for their families, a roof over their heads, clothes for themselves and their kids, a chance to earn a living - none of it that wouldn't be recognized and heartily supported by any one of us... maybe they've got a shot at heading there if the upcoming election lets them turn the corner... and, oh yeah, btw, isn't that what we all said about obama...? sigh...

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