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Monday, November 02, 2009

Abdullah's withdrawal

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from al jazeera...



juan cole...
Matthew Green of the FT, reporting from Kabul, suggests that Abdullah Abdullah may still be open to a post in Hamid Karzai's cabinet. That outcome is not impossible given Afghanistan's mercurial politics. But it seems to me unlikely, since Abdullah is accusing his rival in the country's presidential contest, Hamid Karzai, of having attempted to steal the Aug. 20 election, and of running interference for corrupt members of the electoral commission. The reason Abdullah gave for pulling out of the race, that the elections were not going to be conducted transparently, is more of a thunderous condemnation than a coy offering of himself as a cabinet member. Still, Euronews also notes that Abdullah has not ruled out playing a role in a national unity government.

i chatted online this morning with a couple of afghan friends... the consensus seems to be that abdullah pulled out because he knew he was going to lose... one friend said that she was planning to vote for karzai even tho' she hates him just to keep abdullah from winning... the other friend said he wasn't planning to vote at all nor did he vote in the first round... he just sees it as choice between two different piles of shit...

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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The UN wants Afghan election officials booted before a runoff, a runoff which may not be necessary

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hmmmmm... the thick plottens...
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has said the UN wants more than half the top officials involved in Afghanistan's election replaced.

Mr Ban told the BBC that 200 officials who had been complicit in fraud should go, to ensure a run-off vote due next month was "transparent and credible".

yeah, it's probably not a bad idea to dump the afghan election officials that were complicit in vote fraud but i have just one question... what makes the un so sure they know who those officials ARE...?

in any case, it looks like developments over the past few days have forced abdullah and karzai to start some serious talk about a coalition government... abdullah had said all along that he wouldn't be willing to talk about a coalition unless and until karzai accepted that there had been election fraud... guess he's a man of his word...

Meanwhile the BBC's Andrew North in Kabul says there are indications that President Karzai and Mr Abdullah may reach some kind of deal, meaning that the run-off may not be required.

Mr Abdullah said he had spoken to Mr Karzai by phone, in what is said to be their first confirmed contact since the first round in August.

[...]

Speaking on the BBC's Newsnight programme on Tuesday, Mr Abdullah said a coalition government was unlikely, but if elections proved impossible for "practical reasons" the two rivals needed to talk to find an alternative solution.

There are concerns that holding a second round of voting in November could lead to a repeat of August's massive fraud, as well as logistical problems caused by winter weather, which could leave much of the north of the country inaccessible.

i'm in favor of a coalition simply because i don't see afghans trudging out for another vote when most of them didn't vote the first time around... add to that the possibility of snow and getting fingers cut off and it seems to me like it would be much better to forgo a runoff if they can agree on a coalition government...

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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Steve Bell's depiction of Karzai

it's been absolutely forever since i've posted a steve bell cartoon but i simply couldn't resist his rendering of karzai in today's guardian...

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It looks like a runoff...

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still no official announcement from either the afghan iec or karzai's office...

from the uk guardian
...

Fears of an impasse rose when an Afghan body packed with Karzai's appointees, the Independent Election Commission (IEC), said yesterday that it, not the ECC, had the right to decide whether to hold a run-off.

Kerry, who had been in Kabul over the weekend to press the case with Karzai, flew back to the Afghan capital yesterday for a final round of talks.

At a late meeting last night at the presidential palace, attended by Kerry as well as the British and French ambassadors and the UN special representative, Kai Eide, a deal was struck whereby Karzai will be lauded by other world leaders as a "statesman", even though many observers in Kabul say he has no other choice.

Karzai's recent threats not to accept the results of the official investigation by the ECC, which found that almost one in every three of his votes was fraudulent, has shocked his western allies who believe he has engaged in dangerous brinkmanship.

A senior diplomatic source said Karzai had been talked round by ultimatums from world leaders, including Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, Gordon Brown and Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general who made clear that if he did not back down he would "be working outside the constitution and would no longer be a partner of the west".

Only two members of Karzai's cabinet voted to reject the deal.

so far today, kabul has been quiet, altho' we're still on red alert... stay tuned...

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Monday, October 19, 2009

The EEC says the Karzai vote count didn't top 50% [UPDATES l & II]

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after just reading this on the bbc news site, i got a text message from our security people here in kabul saying that our alert level was now "red"... we've been repeatedly told that would happen as a precaution against any civil unrest or potential violence related to the announcement of the election results...
A panel probing fraud claims in the Afghan election has found Hamid Karzai did not gain enough valid votes for an outright win, the BBC understands.

Preliminary results from August's first round had placed Mr Karzai comfortably over the 50% plus one vote threshold needed to avoid a run-off.

But officials have told the BBC the Electoral Complaints Commission (EEC) says Mr Karzai did not win above 50%.

Mr Karzai could now face a second round against main rival Abdullah Abdullah.

[...]

The ECC reports to the Independent Election Commission (IEC), which will make the final announcement on the election's outcome.

The IEC is widely regarded as pro-Karzai, but analysts say it is legally bound to accept the ECC's findings.

i still think a runoff, given the timing and the security situation, makes no sense... maybe this will force a coalition government with abdullah... stay tuned...

[UPDATE l]

we're sitting here waiting for karzai's response... word on the street is that he is NOT a happy camper which this snippet from the bbc seems to corroborate...
One source warned of a possible "train crash". Others are still hoping a compromise can emerge at this critical 11th hour.

President Karzai has repeatedly warned foreign countries not to interfere in the election process.

Sources say he firmly believes Western countries, in particular the United States and Britain, are conspiring to rob him of victory.

well, let's face it, the guy has a lot to lose, not the least of which is the torrent of cash that flows to his two brothers, mahmoud and wali...

[UPDATE II]

from al jazeera via juan cole...

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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Democracy in Afghanistan...? Not so much... The Afghan Guantánamo...? You betcha... Interrogation techniques hazardous to your health...? Yes...

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mr. khan would like peace, security and job opportunities... pardon me, but, no shit... while we're at it, how about some decent infrastructure like roads, electricity, water, health care, and schools... oh, yeah, and then there's decent food supplies that aren't so outrageously expensive that the folks starving to death on the streets might have a shot at basic nutrition...
Mubaruz Khan didn't bother to vote when Afghans went to the polls in the country's second-ever democratic election last month. He was too busy eking out a living selling cigarettes and soda for $3 a day, and didn't think voting would make a difference in his life.

Millions like Khan stayed home on Aug. 20, a sharp contrast to 2004, when Afghans jammed polling stations to give President Hamid Karzai his first term. Ominous warnings from the Taliban suppressed turnout, but some Afghans said they were also discouraged by the government's failure to halt endemic corruption, spiraling unemployment and crumbling security.

"We want peace. We want security. We want job opportunities," the 55-year-old Khan said Monday. "Otherwise, the democracy and the elections that they are all shouting about every day mean nothing to us."

meanwhile, just a few kilometers down the road from where i sit typing this lies bagram, the afghan guantánamo...
Bagram is "the forgotten second Guantánamo," says American military law expert Eugene Fidell, a professor at Yale Law School. "But apparently there is a continuing need for this sort of place even under the Obama administration."

From the beginning, "Bagram was worse than Guantanamo," says New York-based attorney Tina Foster, who has argued several cases on behalf of detainee rights in US courts. "Bagram has always been a torture chamber."

And what does Obama say? Nothing. He never so much as mentions Bagram in any of his speeches. When discussing America's mistreatment of detainees, he only refers to Guantanamo.

and bagram ain't small, either...
The Bagram detention facility, by now the largest American military prison outside the United States, is not marked on any maps. In fact, its precise location, somewhere on the periphery of the giant air base northeast of the Afghan capital, is classified. It comprises two sand-colored buildings that resemble airplane hangars, surrounded by tall concrete walls and green camouflage tarps. The facility was set up in 2002 as a temporary prison on the grounds of a former Soviet air base.

Today, the two buildings contain large cages, each with the capacity to hold 25 to 30 prisoners. Up to 1,000 detainees can be held at Bagram at any one time. The detainees sleep on mats, and there is one toilet behind a white curtain for each cage. A $60 million extension is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

i've never been up the road toward bagram... in fact, i've barely been out of kabul... however, if i ever do get the opportunity to see some more of this amazingly rugged country, bagram won't be anywhere near the top of my list of "must-see" places...

and as long as we're on the subject of detainees, it kind of leads into how they're treated, particularly in the interrogation process... apparently, our methods aren't necessarily contributing to mental and emotional health...

Prolonged stress from the CIA's harsh interrogations could have impaired the memories of terrorist suspects, diminishing their ability to recall and provide the detailed information the spy agency sought, according to a scientific paper published Monday.

The methods could even have caused the suspects to create – and believe – false memories, contends the paper, which scrutinizes the techniques used by the CIA under the Bush administration through the lens of neurobiology. It suggests the methods are actually counterproductive, no matter how much suspects might eventually say.

"Solid scientific evidence on how repeated and extreme stress and pain affect memory and executive functions (such as planning or forming intentions) suggests these techniques are unlikely to do anything other than the opposite of that intended by coercive or enhanced interrogation," according to the paper in the scientific journal Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[...]

"We've known for quite a while that stress radically impairs cognition. We know memory is very fragile to begin with," said Stephen Soldz, president-elect of Psychologists for Social Responsibility and a professor at Boston Graduate School of Psychoanalysis. "It's just amazing that this has not been taken into account."

not so amazing... in fact, my guess is that it actually WAS taken into account and deliberately discounted because it didn't line up with the preconceived notions of those who were bound and determined that torture and useful interrogation somehow went together despite all of the principles upon which the foundation of the united states supposedly rests...

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Sunday, September 20, 2009

Ahmadinejad congratulates Karzai

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juan cole's dry sense of humor, when he decides to use it, always tickles me...
Iranian authorities maintained that they counted the ballots of a nationwide election in June in only about 10 hours and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad immediately claimed victory, despite widespread suspicions of fraud.

Afghanistan held its presidential election on August 20 and all the ballots are still not counted, and it isn't clear whether there will be a runoff election because of widespread ballot fraud.

But Ahmadinejad knows how to handle all this. The Tehran Times writes: "President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has congratulated his Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai on his re-election. In a telephone conversation on Thursday, Ahmadinejad said that Afghan people have voted for Karzai as he is a 'devout and competent' leader."

You wonder if Karzai can survive that endorsement.

'nuff said...

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Sunday, September 13, 2009

The on-going soap opera of the Afghan presidential election

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the fallout from the afghanistan presidential election continues, none of it good...



juan cole points out that, with dr. abdullah abdullah now accusing president karzai of engineering the election using government resources, the likelihood of a positive resolution any time soon seems to be fast receding into the distance...
Abdullah wants there to be a run-off election, which likely will not be necessary by current rules, which require it only if no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote. But Abdullah believes that the votes that put Karzai up to 54% were at least in part fraudulent and the result of vote-buying with state monies. A run-off is also becoming difficult to hold unless it is scheduled very soon, because winter snows will limit the mobility of much of the population until the spring. But the Independent Electoral Commission is warning that a complete count of the first round may still be weeks away. For Afghanistan to be without a president all winter and spring could be disastrous, not only for the country but also for the Obama administration' s military strategy.

karzai's campaign headquarters just so happens to be two buildings away from the project office where i am sitting typing this post... needless to say, the street in front of that building that provided us convenient access to a main thoroughfare has been closed off with security barriers and guards... oh, well...

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Saturday, September 05, 2009

And I'm heading back to Afghanistan to face this...

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an on-going tragedy of epic proportions continues in afghanistan...

al jazeera...

A Nato air strike is said to have killed between 70 and 130 people in the Afghan province of Kunduz.

Nato say they targeted Taliban fighters who had seized two fuel tankers.

Al Jazeera's James Bays reports from a nearby village, where locals say many of the killed were civilians.



according to several accounts i've read, including juan cole, there were numerous civilians gathered around the tankers hoping to get some free fuel...
The governor [Kunduz Governor Eng. Mohammad Omar] said the Taliban fighters hijacked two oil tankers carrying aircraft fuel for NATO forces from the Kunduz-Baghlan Highway. The militants were distributing fuel for free when the raid took place.

But a security official, seeking anonymity, said the death toll was more than 200. He claimed warplanes struck the people who had gathered to receive free oil distributed by the hijackers. The official would not give further details.

what with the unrest due to the disputed election results and the completely understandable outpouring of rage over civilian deaths, it's going to be a tough time to be headed back there, but back there i will be as of a week from this sunday... unfortunately, being there is no more of a guarantee of an informed perspective than sitting here in the u.s... anyway, stay tuned...

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Friday, August 14, 2009

Ashraf Ghani is changing the game of presidential politics in Afghanistan

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it's tempting for me to fall into the "anybody but karzai" mindset just like i once did with my "anybody but bush" mantra, but i've got to say, the two main rivals for karzai's seat as the afghan president, abdullah abdullah and ashraf ghani, give me hope for the country...

i happen to have worked with mr. ghani's niece, one extremely sharp, selfless and committed woman, and she has often told me, such is the depth of her respect for her uncle, she would crawl on her hands and knees for many kilometers over broken glass to have the opportunity to work once again with him as she did when he was at the afghanistan finance ministry...

Ashraf Ghani, the most educated and Westernized of Afghanistan’s presidential candidates, is shaking up the campaign before Thursday’s election in unusual ways.

A former finance minister with a background in American academia and at the World Bank, Mr. Ghani, 60, says he is trying to change politics in Afghanistan. Using television and radio, Internet donations and student volunteers, as well as traditional networks like religious councils, he is seeking to reach out to young people, women and the poor, and do the unexpected: defeat President Hamid Karzai.

[...]

Mr. Ghani has been one of the most influential figures involved in building the current Afghan state. Appointed finance minister in 2002, he instituted a centralized revenue collection scheme, and oversaw the flow of billions of dollars of foreign assistance into the war-torn country.

Yet his scrupulousness made him enemies and, disillusioned with official corruption and Mr. Karzai’s leadership, he left the cabinet in 2004.

[...]

His main drawback is his aloofness. When serving in the cabinet, he came under criticism that after 24 years living away from Afghanistan, nearly half his life, he was out of touch with the people and too abrasive in his dealings with his fellow Afghans.

He left the country in the 1970s to study at the American University of Beirut, went on to earn a doctorate in anthropology at Columbia in 1982, and taught at Johns Hopkins University. In 1991, he joined the World Bank.

Like other Western-educated technocrats, he encountered on his return the resentment of those Afghans who had had no chance to leave and had suffered 30 years of war and privation.

But he says that is changing. He has sought to get closer to the Afghan people by holding an open house for the last 18 months and says he has received over 100,000 people from all over the country, which has informed the development of his policies.

“It has been the largest seminar in my life and I have been the sole student,” he said. “I connect back to the people because I have heard them, and I have heard some very harsh things. It’s been a relationship.”

also, given what i've read about abdullah abdullah (see my july 24 post here), i think that between the two of them, afghans may have some excellent options for replacing karzai who, imho, has amply demonstrated his incompetency and corruption...

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Friday, July 24, 2009

A sign of hope for dumping Karzai in the upcoming Afghan election...?

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wouldn't it be loverly...?

from the nyt...

When Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the main election challenger to President Hamid Karzai, arrived here to campaign last weekend, thousands of supporters choked the six-mile drive from the airport. Cars were plastered with his posters. Motorbikes flew blue banners. Young men wearing T-shirts emblazoned with his face leapt aboard his car to embrace him to ecstatic cheers.

[...]

Mr. Karzai is still widely considered the front-runner in the campaign for the Aug. 20 presidential election. But Dr. Abdullah, who has the backing of the largest opposition group, the National Front, is the one candidate among the field of 41 who has a chance of forcing Mr. Karzai into a runoff, a contest between the top two vote-getters if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes in the first balloting.

but here's the part that gets my attention...
Dr. Abdullah, with a diplomat and a surgeon as his running mates, is seen as part of a younger generation of Afghans keen to move away from the nation’s reliance on warlords and older mujahedeen leaders and to clean up and recast the practice of governing.

To do that, he advocates the devolution of power from the strong presidency built up under Mr. Karzai to a parliamentary system that he says will be more representative. He is also calling for a system of electing officials for Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and nearly 400 districts as a way to build support for the government.

Those provincial governors are now appointed from Kabul, and many have been criticized for cronyism and corruption. Influential Shiite clerics here in Herat, who supported Mr. Karzai in the last election in 2004, are now so fed up with corrupt appointees that they have said they will back Dr. Abdullah this time.

Re-engaging the people is essential to reverse the lawlessness and insecurity that have reached a critical point in much of the country, Dr. Abdullah said. “They have managed to lose the people,” he said of the current government. “In fighting an insurgency, you lose the people and you lose the war.”

as the plane was on final approach to the kabul airport for my second visit to afghanistan last november, i looked out on the grim scene of mud houses, pollution and dreadful poverty and had an astonishing revelation... i had developed a real soft spot in my heart for afghanistan... "what's wrong with this picture?" i remember thinking but then had to admit that i had developed a great deal of affection for the afghans i had met and become friends with on my first visit... the people and their country had come to mean a great deal to me and that emotional attachment has only been strengthened over two more visits and will no doubt become even stronger on the fifth one coming up...

the afghans are just like people everywhere else around the world... they only want what we all want - a little peace and quiet, food for their families, a roof over their heads, clothes for themselves and their kids, a chance to earn a living - none of it that wouldn't be recognized and heartily supported by any one of us... maybe they've got a shot at heading there if the upcoming election lets them turn the corner... and, oh yeah, btw, isn't that what we all said about obama...? sigh...

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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Election - the Afghan reality show

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do ya 'spose a show like this might have given us'ns here in the u.s. a better experience of our own 2008 elections...?
Producers of The Candidate, which airs on the privately owned Tolo TV network, are hoping to help by focusing Afghans on what they want from their political leaders. And Tolo has a successful model for its idea of tele-democracy: its wildly popular Afghan Star show, mimicking American Idol, in which millions of viewers voted via text message every week for their favorite singer. "One of the key successes of Afghan Star was that it demonstrated the concept of voting. So we started to think, how do we do the same thing in terms of elections?" says Tolo chief Jahid Mohseni. "One of the critical problems we have in Afghanistan is that we have a personality approach to politics - it's all about who the person is, his family, or his ethnicity. It's never about policy and it is never about the outcome you want. So we thought a program based on a competition about policies could change that."

Each week, the show's contestants debate a policy topic such as security, education, healthcare and the economy. Although a rotating panel of judges rate the candidates based on presentation, strategy and persuasiveness, it's viewers who get the final say, voting one candidate off the show each week starting with the fourth episode, and culminating a week before the real election. The show's debates have become part of the country's everyday political discussions, blurring the line between reality TV and political reality. "These six candidates are better than the real candidates because they talk about platforms and have a vision for what needs to be done," says presenter Jawed Jurat. Already, he says, some of the real candidates are copying the platforms of their youthful television counterparts.

the re-election of karzai, the most likely outcome of next month's afghanistan national election, will mean only one thing - same old same old - which, for a country like afghanistan, is equivalent to a worst case scenario... like so many other places in the world, afghanistan is crying out for real, authentic leadership, a commodity in dreadfully short supply virtually everywhere...

sigh...

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Wednesday, March 04, 2009

The Afghanistan election drama - a bit of Bollywood in Kabul [UPDATE]

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[UPDATE and BUMPED]

another chapter in the suspense-filled serial... (see previous installments below...)
Afghanistan's election commission has said that presidential polls will take place on August 20, rejecting a request from Hamid Karzai, the country's president, for them to be held in the spring.

In a decree issued last week, Karzai said the elections should take place in April in line with the constitution that requires the vote to take place 30 to 60 days before the end of his mandate on May 21.

But on Wednesday, election officials repeated their belief that a fair vote would be impossible in spring because of the threat of violence and snow in the country's remote mountainous areas.

"While we respect and accept the president's decree, its implementation is not possible because all the problems which we listed previously, which are mainly security and weather conditions, are still in place," Azizullah Ludin, head of the Independent Election Commission (EC), said.

"This is why after a thorough study the EC came to the conclusion that we have to hold transparent, free and fair elections. That's why we confirm the date of August 20."

[...]

But with that date being confirmed, it is now unclear who will be president after Karzai's term ends.

[...]

The National Front, the main political opposition group formed of a fragile coalition of opposition parties and some other candidates welcomed the commission's decision and called for "national dialogue" on an interim administration.

oh, we're in for months of great fun...!

for those just joining us, here are the previous installments of our pot-boiler...

-----

bollywood soap operas are hugely popular on afghan tv, despite the taliban's expressed displeasure over their perceived pollution of the morals of the populace... watching the latest gyrations over the afghan presidential elections, i can't help but think of a bollywood serial - many actors, byzantine subplots, and enough twists and turns to boggle the mind of any one trying to figure out what the hell is going on...

first, the elections were going to be postponed until august 20...

Afghanistan on Thursday announced presidential elections for August 20, hoping a U.S. troop surge will improve security at a time when violence is at the highest levels since the 2001 overthrow of the Taliban.

President Hamid Karzai has strongly hinted he will run for re-election saying he still has "a job to complete," but his popularity has waned both among Afghans and his Western backers due to rampant corruption and weak government outside Kabul.

well, nobody liked THAT...
The credibility of the international mission in Afghanistan was dealt a blow yesterday with the announcement that presidential elections have been put back by three months.

The delay, which pushes the vote back until mid-August, was blamed on the difficult security conditions in many parts of the country and logistical and technical problems. It has sparked fears of political turmoil at a time when President Karzai’s administration is becoming increasingly unpopular among Afghans weary of the fighting and endemic corruption.

so, karzai pushes the election date up to april...
President Hamid Karzai decreed Saturday that presidential elections be moved forward to April or May, just weeks after they were set for August, in what appears to be an attempt to avert constitutional challenges to his legitimacy.

Mr. Karzai, who has declared his intention to run for a second term, is supposed to step down on May 21, when his current five-year term ends, under the terms of the country’s Constitution. But Afghanistan’s election commission announced in January that weather conditions and poor security had forced it to delay presidential and provincial elections until Aug. 20, which immediately raised questions over Mr. Karzai’s legitimacy for the intervening three months.

so, now the u.s. ain't happy...
The US rejects the Afghan president's call for an early poll on April 21, saying it prefers an August date for presidential elections in Afghanistan.

In Washington, State Department Spokesman Robert Wood said on Sunday that it still believed an August date would be best for a free and fair election.

One Western official told The Daily Telegraph an attempt to hold the poll within weeks was 'absolutely ridiculous'.

The US and its western allies' criticism come after the Afghan President, Hamid Karzai on Saturday, called for polls before his term ends on May 21. Karzai issued a decree for elections 'according to the constitution', which says the vote, should be held 30 to 60 days before his term ends.

and it looks like nobody else is happy either...
President Hamid Karzai's call to suddenly move up elections from late summer to early spring drew cries of "sabotage" Sunday from political opponents who know they can't win the presidency if a vote is held next month.

But few in the capital think Karzai's decree is anything but a political gambit meant to give him the high ground in a tussle for power come May 22, when the Afghan constitution says his five-year term expires.

but, despite all the moaning and groaning, karzai's opposition is nonetheless lining up...
Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's president, is facing more resistance after he issued a decree to bring the country's presidential elections forward, from August to April.

But while the official date of the elections is being disputed, some of Karzai's former advisers are already lining up to challenge him.

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