The next 7 months in Iraq

juan cole posts a very interesting piece of correspondence he received from a vietnam vet (who asked not to be attributed), speculating on what the next seven months in iraq would bring... some highlowlights...

• As was demonstrated by an entire school being wired as a complete booby trap, insurgents with good inside intelligence are anticipating American-Iraqi troops taking over abandoned schools, police stations, etc., as "outposts." Even if Americans inspect these facilities early, with sophisticated devices, there is no guarantee that stay behind explosives experts among the insurgents won't trigger these massive booby traps -- killing American and Iraqi inspection teams...

• Al-Qaeda will try a Khobar tower attack, where they used an 18-wheeler fully loaded with tons of explosives. This will depend on whether an outpost is sufficiently distanced from the local population enough to destroy the outpost, but not killed any more Iraqis than necessary...

• [I]mproved rocket and mortar fire will continue to hit the Green Zone with greater accuracy...

• Every attempt will be made in the next seven months to cause at least two dozen or more American fatalities in one event, plus many more wounded...

• President Bush WILL NOT reduce American numbers in Iraq in 2007.

• More attempts will be made to capture Americans and hold them hostage.

• If the "surge" does not show appreciable improvement on the ground in Iraq, Bush will ABSOLUTELY refuse to bring any troops home by Christmas.

a fairly grim picture overall but, sadly, not at all suprising... listening to george and seeing what's taken place with his bogus "surge" and the political bullshit he's dispensed over the iraq bill, this all computes quite well...

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