Steve Clemons on Bolton: "We are winning!"

as i write this, it's 4:40, argentine time, and the bolton vote in the senate is less than two hours away... steve clemons took a look at the sports book odds on bolton's confirmation, tracking it from early may...

The Bolton market at TradeSports.com is dropping dramatically. The chances of Bolton now getting through as Ambassador to the United Nations are measured by the market at 45% chance of confirmation.

This is amazing as he was considered quite likely, 95% likely at the end of May, and then hovered around 90% through early June -- after which it has been plummeting since.

We are winning.

but before i'm overcome with euphoria, steve also comments on the very real possibility of a recess appointment which would be bush's way of flipping the big, fat digit at the u.s. senate, the united nations, and the american people...

Lots on the Republican side are now saying that a recess appointment is likely. It would be a historic decision as the July 4th recess is only five days -- and during the last 20 years, the shortest period of recess for such an appointment was 10 days.

But this administration is precedent-setting in many ways. Recess appointments are the President's right. If he wants to send his embattled nominee who failed to get confirmation in a Republican-controlled Congress, there is little that can be done to stop it.

there'll be a price to be paid, however...

Appointments made during short recesses (less than 30 days), however, have sometimes aroused controversy, and they may involve a political cost for the President. Controversy has been particularly acute in instances where Senators perceive that the President is using the recess appointment process to circumvent the confirmation process for a nominee who is opposed in the Senate.

i've got my fingers crossed...

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