Attempting to read the tea leaves about a pending war with Iran

william l. polk, writing in juan cole's informed comment, referencing the march 12 article in u.s. news and world report, “6 signs the U.S. may be headed for war in Iran,” carefully lays out the reasons why he thinks the bush administration, either itself or by using israel as a proxy, is poised for imminent war with iran... it's a bit lengthy but quite thorough...

from the u.s. news article, here are the six reasons

1. Fallon's resignation

2. Vice President Cheney's peace trip

3. Israeli airstrike on Syria

4. Warships off Lebanon

5. Israeli comments

6. Israel's war with Hezbollah

here's polk...

[A] massive build-up of forces inevitably creates the “climate” of war. Troops and the public, on both sides, come to accept its inevitability. Standing down is difficult and can entail loss of “face.” Consequently, political leaders usually are carried forward by the flow of events.

polk quotes from the 2005 national defense strategy of the u.s...

“America is a nation at war…[and] will defeat adversaries at the time, place, and in the manner of our choosing…[rather than employing] A reactive or defensive approach…Therefore, we must confront challenges earlier and more comprehensively, before they are allowed to mature…In all cases, we will seek to seize the initiative and dictate the tempo, timing, and direction of military operations.” In short, as Henry Kissinger pointed out in The International Herald Tribune, April 14, 2006, it is an assertion of the intention to engage in preëmptive or “first strike” warfare.

[...]

Iran is the major perceived adversary capable of doing what National Defense Strategy of the United States of America termed “adopting threatening capabilities, methods, and ambitions…[to] 1) limit our global freedom to act, 2) dominate key regions, or 3) attempt to make prohibitive the costs of meeting various U.S. international commitments.”

if there was ever a time when the bush administration could take advantage of a major global distraction to take the stage and divert people's attention from the massive disaster it has become, it's now... while i'm not going to sit around, soiling my tighty-whities thinking about it, nevertheless, we would all do well to keep it in mind as a serious possibility...

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