Media Matters does a first-rate analysis

never shoddy, they make three major points around how our esteemed fourth estate leads us down the garden path...

• Problem 1: The prediction/assertion can be self-fulfilling
  

It's simple. When the media assert that a particular event -- in this case, the U.K. arrests -- will drive up Bush's poll numbers on the question of national security, they do several things: They suggest to the public that Bush played a significant role in thwarting the terror plot; they tell the public that his purported role is another example of his strength on terror; and they contribute invaluably to Rove's plan to make this election year about the war on terror rather than about any number of other issues -- including the Iraq war -- that Rove has decided, probably correctly, poll even worse for Republicans.

• Problem 2: The prediction/assertion is made possible by bad or no reporting
  

In suggesting or asserting that the U.K. arrests are helping or will help Bush, the media are not reporting; they are repeating. That Bush is strong on terror. That Bush played an important role in thwarting the attacks. That Bush's policies have made us safer.

[...]

We are not saying that any of those statements is false. We are merely saying that in simply asserting that the public will view Bush more favorably as a result of the U.K. arrests, the media must withhold from viewers and readers -- and presumably themselves -- contrary evidence and contrary viewpoints.

• Problem 3: The prediction/assertion is apparently wrong
  

If professional pride isn't enough to dissuade the media from repeating Republican spin on an issue as serious and consequential as national security, perhaps this will be: The media's predictions are wrong. Polling conducted after the U.K. arrests doesn't bear out the claims of a Bush bounce.

there's really a lot more than i've snipped out here... go read the whole thing...

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