Poverty, AMLO, Mexico, and the July 2 election

(amlo - andres manuel lopez obrador...)

it's turning into a real horserace...

Less than three weeks from a presidential election, they are facing a stark and potentially portentous choice: to support the candidate of the ruling centre-right PAN party of outgoing president Vicente Fox, or tack abruptly to the left with the socialist PRD party, [and its] charismatic, populist candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, 52...

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Mexicans are entirely unaccustomed to political suspense of this kind. For several months, polls have shown Lopez Obrador in a dead heat with his PAN rival, Felipe Calderon. Yesterday, a new survey published in La Reforma newspaper gave the leftist a tiny lead of three points. Not too far behind in third place is the other main candidate, Roberto Madrazo, of the old PRI.

Whatever happens on 2 July, it is not just Mexico that will feel the effects. Latin America has seen a dramatic shift to the political left in recent years, notably with the coming to power eight years ago of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, followed by Nestor Kirchner in Argentina and, most recently, Evo Morales in Bolivia. Mexico, which is not only the immediate southern neighbour of the United States but also its largest trading partner, will emerge either as a bulkhead against the powerful populist tide or as the latest - and surely the most important - country in the region to embrace it.

there is a huge gap between the well-to-do and the poor in mexico... mexico lays claim to some of the richest people on the planet, not least among them carlos slim helu, a billionaire of the first rank... there is good reason lopez obrador has a following...

Joblessness among the poor, particularly away from the relatively prosperous north, remains endemic. It is this scarcity of employment and economic opportunity that has triggered the new wave of migration across the border into the United States that has reached near exodus proportions. Free trade was meant to bring higher living standards to all, but many poorer Mexicans do not feel those changes.

as i read obrador's own words, i can't help but hope he's the one...

"I invite you to transform Mexico out of poverty and marginalization," he exclaims. "I come here to reaffirm my commitment to you and I bring three vows with me: Not to lie, not to steal, not to betray you." He goes on: "We're not going to change only the jockey but also the horse." And he pours scorn on those who say his proposed platform of welfare spending would be unsustainable. "I won't accept the tiresome song of technocrats telling me it's not possible," he says with unrepentant defiance. "That's why we're going to change the economic politics of this country."

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